TLDR
- NKE is trading around $38, down nearly 50% over the past year and near 12-year lows
- Revenue flatlined at ~$46.4B in FY2026, back to FY2022 levels, while free cash flow dropped from $6.62B to $2.18B
- Brand popularity at back-to-school retail checks fell from 92.5% in 2021 to a low of 38.2% in 2025, recovering slightly to 45.8% in 2026
- JPMorgan downgraded to Underweight; analyst consensus sits at Hold with a $52.94 average price target
- The November 2026 Capital Markets Day is seen as the key near-term catalyst, with margin improvement not expected until H1 2027
Nike (NKE) stock is trading around $38, down roughly 49% over the past year and sitting near its lowest level in 12 years. The 52-week range runs from $37.95 to $76.97, and the stock remains well below both its 50-day moving average of $41.62 and its 200-day moving average of $46.34.
The numbers behind the slide are hard to argue with. Revenue came in at roughly $46.4B in FY2026, flat with FY2022 levels, while net income was nearly cut in half to $3.11B. Free cash flow collapsed from $6.62B in FY2024 to $2.18B in FY2026.
The most recent quarterly earnings offered a small bright spot. Nike reported Q4 EPS of $0.20, beating the $0.11 consensus estimate. Revenue of $10.97B also edged past expectations of $10.85B, though it was still down 1.1% year over year.
Despite the beat, analysts were not rushing to upgrade. JPMorgan moved to Underweight, Truist cut to Hold with a $42 target, and both RBC and Stifel hold $45 targets. The consensus rating across the street is Hold, with an average price target of $52.94.
Brand and Channel Problems
The brand erosion is one of the clearest signs of trouble. Nike’s back-to-school popularity peaked at 92.5% of retail checks in 2021. By 2025, that had dropped to an all-time low of 38.2%, according to a Stifel survey. It has ticked back up to 45.8% in 2026, but that is still well off peak levels.
The company’s aggressive push into direct-to-consumer sales hurt its wholesale relationships. It is now working to rebuild those partnerships, including with Foot Locker. But a weak Q2 from Dick’s Sporting Goods suggests the broader footwear market is still under pressure.
Nike has also closed 11 U.S. stores, including one in California, as it reshapes its retail footprint.
New lifestyle products are in the pipeline, but they are not expected to reach scale until H2 2027. Industry lead times leave little room to speed that up.
What’s Next
CEO Elliott Hill has been meeting with investors, including in London in late August, but acknowledged that the execution is taking longer than expected.
The November 2026 Capital Markets Day is the most closely watched near-term event. That is when Nike is expected to lay out a financial framework that could either rebuild or further dent investor confidence.
Institutional Activity
Institutional investors have been moving in different directions. B. Metzler seel. Sohn & Co. AG trimmed its NKE position by 16.6% in Q2, selling 34,836 units and retaining 174,933 valued at around $7.18M. Meanwhile, Harris Associates raised its stake by 72.3% in Q4, and J. Stern & Co. added heavily, growing its position by over 49,000%.
Insider selling has also picked up. Over the last 90 days, insiders sold 26,142 units valued at around $1.17M. The Chief Accounting Officer is also departing, effective September 4.
Nike’s quarterly dividend stands at $0.41 per share, paid October 1, with an annualized yield of around 4.2%.
InvestingPro’s fair value model puts NKE at $56.15, implying roughly 47% upside, though analysts price in near-term pain first.
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