TLDR
- Peter Thiel’s Thiel Macro LLC disclosed 372,755 VST stock at the end of Q2 2026, worth approximately $59.1 million.
- VST stock rose 3.5% to $149.27 on Friday, though it remains well below its recent highs.
- Analysts hold a “Moderate Buy” consensus with an average price target of $223.53, suggesting over 49% upside from current levels.
- Vistra missed Q2 earnings, posting EPS of $0.76 against a $1.61 estimate, with revenue of $4.02 billion vs. $5.46 billion expected.
- 111 hedge funds held VST at the end of Q2 2026, up from 106 the prior quarter, with Appaloosa holding around 2.22 million VST stock.
Vistra Corp. (VST) stock climbed 3.5% to $149.27 on Friday after a 13F filing revealed that Peter Thiel’s hedge fund, Thiel Macro LLC, held 372,755 VST stock valued at roughly $59.1 million at the end of Q2 2026.
The stock hit an intraday high of $149.45 before settling near that level. Volume came in at around 4.58 million, about 6% below the average daily session.
Vistra’s Q2 earnings were a miss. The company reported EPS of $0.76, well short of the $1.61 analyst consensus. Revenue came in at $4.02 billion against expectations of $5.46 billion.
Despite the earnings miss, Wall Street remains broadly positive. The stock carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating, with one Strong Buy, 14 Buys, and two Holds. The average price target sits at $223.53.
Individual price targets vary widely. Goldman Sachs has a $206 target, Wells Fargo is at $212, Seaport Research Partners sits at $230, and Scotiabank recently raised its target from $293 to $298. Zacks moved VST from “Strong Buy” to “Hold” in August.
Why Thiel’s Position Is Turning Heads
Thiel’s filing does not explain the reason for the position, and it reflects holdings at quarter end, not a single-day purchase. Jumping to conclusions about the motive would be a stretch.
That said, Vistra sits at the center of a debate about whether power, not chips, becomes the scarce resource in the next phase of the AI buildout. Data centers need large, reliable blocks of electricity, and Vistra operates a broad generation fleet in high-demand power markets.
Wolfe Research has argued the market may be underpricing Vistra’s ability to turn data-center demand into EBITDA and free cash flow growth.
Valuation and Institutional Interest
Vistra trades at roughly 15.8 times forward earnings. Constellation Energy, which carries a heavier nuclear and contracted profile, trades at around 22.9 times. That discount could narrow if Vistra locks in more data-center contracts and makes future cash flows more predictable.
Institutional ownership is broad. BlackRock acquired a new position worth approximately $4.61 billion in Q2. Appaloosa held around 2.22 million VST stock as of the same filing period, up about 10% from Q1.
Overall, 111 hedge funds held VST at the end of Q2 2026, up from 106 the quarter before. Short interest stood near 9.64 million VST stock, or about 2.9% of float, with 1.9 days to cover as of August 14.
On the dividend front, Vistra declared a quarterly dividend of $0.23 per share, payable September 30 to stockholders of record as of September 21. The annualized yield stands at around 0.6%.
The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.87, a market cap of $50.10 billion, and a beta of 1.40. Analysts expect full-year EPS of $9.21 for the current fiscal year.
Stop guessing and start investing with confidence. KnockoutStocks gives you the AI insights, market intelligence, and stock research you need to spot opportunities, cut through the noise, and make smarter investment decisions — all in one powerful platform.
Sign up today and get 50% OFF full access to our premium stock picks.
Simply use coupon code SPECIAL50 at checkout to claim your exclusive discount.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
