TLDR
- RKLB stock is down 8% year-to-date, trading at $64.26, well below its 12-month high of $151.00
- Wall Street maintains a Strong Buy consensus with an average price target of $108.88, implying 69% upside
- Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target to $122, citing solid Q2 revenue and Neutron remaining on track
- Bank of America trimmed its target to $110 from $115 but kept its Buy rating, pointing to a $2.36 billion backlog
- Saudi Central Bank more than doubled its RKLB position in Q2; ARK Invest also purchased over 705,000 shares recently
Rocket Lab (RKLB) stock opened at $64.26 on Monday, sitting about 8% below where it started the year. The stock has dropped roughly 49% over the past three months and sits far off its 12-month high of $151.00.
Despite that slide, most analysts aren’t walking away. Wall Street has a Strong Buy consensus on RKLB, with 13 Buy ratings and four Holds. The average price target of $108.88 puts potential upside at around 69%.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard recently raised his price target to $122 from $96, keeping his Buy rating in place. He pointed to solid Q2 revenue and management’s confirmation that the Neutron rocket remains on schedule for a first launch later this year.
Sheppard also called Rocket Lab’s planned Iridium acquisition “transformational,” expecting the combined company to double annual revenue once the deal closes.
Neutron Rocket Remains the Key Catalyst
The Neutron rocket is the central piece of the Rocket Lab growth story. It’s a reusable medium-lift vehicle that would push the company into a much larger market than its current Electron rocket serves.
However, there’s a real risk here. Reports suggest Neutron’s first launch could slip into 2027, which would delay a major revenue opportunity. Bank of America analyst Ronald Epstein called the development timeline “a key aspect to watch,” noting a potential Q4 2026 demo flight is possible but the schedule is tight.
Epstein lowered his price target to $110 from $115 to account for a higher share count but held his Buy rating. He cited Rocket Lab’s “strong positioning across launch and space systems capabilities” and the $2.36 billion contracted backlog, which includes more than 90 launches.
Institutional Buying Picks Up
On the institutional side, Saudi Central Bank more than doubled its RKLB stake in Q2, adding 18,670 shares to bring its total to 36,415 shares, valued at roughly $3.7 million. ARK Invest also bought over 705,000 shares across two recent trading sessions.
Institutional investors and hedge funds collectively own 71.78% of RKLB stock.
That buying activity contrasts with insider selling. CFO Adam Spice sold 140,157 shares on September 2nd at an average price of $62.63, totaling around $8.78 million. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 plan.
In Q2, Rocket Lab posted revenue of $234.07 million, beating estimates of $231.62 million. EPS came in at -$0.08, missing the -$0.06 consensus estimate. The company remains unprofitable, with analysts forecasting full-year EPS of -$0.20.
One positive note from last week: Planet Labs flagged growing congestion in SpaceX’s rideshare business, which could push more customers toward alternative launch providers like Rocket Lab.
The company also recorded its 94th successful launch and has 16 additional missions booked through 2030.
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