TLDR
- Bitcoin rose ~3% on Monday, trading above $79,000 after weeks of losses
- Trump hinted at a possible end to the US-Iran war, sending oil prices lower
- The Clarity Act’s latest draft includes ethics provisions backed by Trump, boosting crypto sentiment
- Fed rate hike odds climbed to 92.7%, with markets expecting a 25-basis-point move Wednesday
- Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week exponential moving average at $77,430
Bitcoin bounced back on Monday, climbing roughly 3% on the day to trade above $79,000. This came after a 3.2% drop the previous week.
The move higher was driven by two main catalysts: signals from President Trump about a possible end to the US-Iran conflict, and fresh progress on the Clarity Act — a major crypto regulation bill moving through the US Senate.
Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran “wants to make a deal, quickly and badly,” adding that the US was open to engaging. A follow-up post predicted oil prices would “drop like a rock” once the military conflict ends. Oil prices dipped on the comments, which helped lift risk assets including crypto.
Clarity Act Gets Closer to a Vote
The US Senate could vote on the Clarity Act as early as Tuesday. The bill had stalled after failing to secure the 60 votes needed to advance. Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis said the updated bill includes over 120 Democratic demands, including new ethics restrictions on elected officials and their spouses.
🇺🇸 BREAKING: Senator Lummis says Democrats are holding the CLARITY Act "hostage" the night before the cloture vote.
"President Trump has now agreed to two historic ethics provisions, provisions these very members demanded. There's nothing left to give."
This came after Senator… pic.twitter.com/qBRlRdVYEC
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) September 14, 2026
Trump voluntarily agreed to ethics provisions covering federally elected officials, judges, and their spouses. The updated draft also gives the Treasury Secretary new authority to prevent deposit flight tied to payment stablecoins.
Analyst Ted Pillows flagged a key level to watch on social media, noting that “$BTC is about to enter a huge sell zone,” with “a lot of sell orders placed around the $80,000–$83,000 range.” He added that if Bitcoin breaks above that zone, “another leg up could happen, and the cycle bottom will be confirmed.”
$BTC is about to enter a huge sell zone.
A lot of sell orders have been placed around the $80,000-$83,000 range.
If Bitcoin manages to break above this, another leg up could happen, and the cycle bottom will be confirmed. pic.twitter.com/gVxtqyeKRn
— Ted (@TedPillows) September 14, 2026
Fed Decision in Focus
Markets are now watching Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting closely. The odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike climbed to 92.7%, up from 59.4% just a week ago, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Trading firm QCP Capital noted that the hike itself is largely priced in. What matters more now is how Fed officials frame their decision and what it signals about future policy.
QCP also warned that prolonged high oil prices could keep inflation elevated, limiting the Fed’s ability to ease policy even if economic growth slows.
Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week exponential moving average at $77,430 on Monday after briefly closing the weekly candle below that level. The 50-week EMA is considered a key support level by Bitcoin bulls.
US equities were mixed on the day, with the S&P 500 down 0.3%. Tech stocks fell following a blog post by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei calling for a slowdown in AI development, a view backed by Sam Altman, Elon Musk, and Google DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis.
WTI crude oil remained above $100 per barrel and Brent crude traded near $105 at the time of writing.
