TLDR
- Salesforce stock fell over 3% Thursday after its investor day, as the revenue outlook update disappointed some investors
- The company reaffirmed its $63 billion fiscal 2030 revenue target but gave no formal fiscal 2028 guidance
- Multiple analysts raised price targets, with Stifel going to $300 and Guggenheim to $300
- Top 100 Agentforce customers generated 2x annual recurring revenue within 18 months; premium license ARR topped $1 billion
- Wall Street consensus remains a Moderate Buy with an average price target of $272.54, implying ~12% upside
Salesforce (CRM) stock dropped more than 3% on Thursday, trading around $242 to $245, even as a wave of analysts raised their price targets following the company’s annual Dreamforce conference and investor day.
The stock fell after Salesforce raised its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook only to the high end of its previous range. Investors had been hoping for a bigger upgrade.
Salesforce reaffirmed its fiscal 2030 revenue target of more than $63 billion. Management said organic growth is on track to accelerate in the second half of fiscal 2027 and beyond. The company did not issue formal fiscal 2028 guidance.
The investor day also featured the launch of Koa, Salesforce’s first reasoning AI model built specifically for customer relationship management. It was developed in partnership with Nvidia.
Several analysts came away more positive, not less. Stifel’s J. Parker Lane raised his price target from $275 to $300, citing record potential deals in the sales pipeline. Canaccord Genuity’s David Hynes also moved to $300, as did Guggenheim’s John Difucci. Freedom Capital’s Egor Tolmachev lifted his target from $230 to $295.
Agentforce Gaining Ground
J.P. Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee maintained an Overweight rating and a $265 price forecast. He said the investor day reinforced the view that Salesforce can grow revenue from its existing customer base through premium upgrades and Agentforce adoption.
Salesforce’s top 100 Agentforce customers by weekly active users generated more than 2x their annual recurring revenue within 18 months of launch. Premium license ARR has crossed $1 billion. The premium mix climbed to 5% in fiscal Q2 2027, up from just 1% in fiscal Q1 2025.
Upgrades to Agentforce 1 Edition carry a 60% to 80% increase in average selling prices. J.P. Morgan estimates that every 1% of the customer base that shifts to premium tiers represents roughly $100 million in incremental opportunity.
Nine of the top 10 AI companies use Salesforce. ARR from that group jumped 435% year over year. CRM seat growth rose 62% among those customers, while Slack adoption hit 100%.
Analyst Ratings Remain Constructive
Guggenheim’s Difucci said Salesforce appears to be taking a more logical approach to product and pricing, though both remain in early stages of market adoption. He noted that broad enterprise adoption has not yet arrived.
Stifel’s Lane added that checks with industry contacts show customer demand remains strong.
Citigroup kept its Neutral rating and raised its forecast to $263. RBC Capital held its Sector Perform rating with a $250 target.
The Wall Street consensus sits at a Moderate Buy, based on 28 Buys, 10 Holds, and one Sell over the past three months. The average price target of $272.54 implies roughly 12% upside from current levels.
CRM is a major holding in several tech-focused ETFs, making up 6.60% of IGV, 6.11% of FDN, and 6.53% of PKW.
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