TLDR
- European natural gas prices held near three-week lows after Iran signaled it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days.
- Dutch front-month TTF gas traded around €72.90 per MWh, while British NBP gas remained near multi-week lows.
- Tehran says reopening Hormuz would depend on the U.S. easing military pressure and lifting its blockade on Iranian ports.
- Europe’s gas storage remains around 70% full, leaving the region vulnerable ahead of winter.
- Lower oil and gas prices are easing some inflation concerns, but supply risks remain elevated.
European natural gas prices held near three-week lows Wednesday as traders weighed the possibility that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz against relatively weak gas storage levels heading into winter.
Benchmark Dutch front-month TTF gas slipped about 0.6% to €72.90 per megawatt-hour, close to its lowest level since early September. British wholesale gas edged slightly higher but remained close to recent lows.
Hormuz Hopes Push Energy Risk Premium Lower
Iran has told Reuters it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States eases military pressure and lifts its blockade on Iranian ports. Tehran said its delegation at the United Nations General Assembly has authority to pursue renewed diplomacy with Washington.
BREAKING: Iran directly rejects new claims this morning that Iran is ready to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US eases military pressure and lifts the blockade on Iranian ports, with Iranian sources calling them "false, unreliable and lacking in accuracy,"…
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) September 22, 2026
The comments have encouraged traders to reduce some of the geopolitical premium built into European gas and global oil prices. Brent crude has also fallen below $100 as markets react to improving prospects for Middle East energy flows.
Saudi Arabia has separately restarted operations at its East-West oil pipeline after an earlier shutdown. The route helps move crude to the Red Sea while bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, adding another potential source of supply relief.
However, any reopening of Hormuz remains conditional. Iran has said Washington would need to take concrete steps toward reducing military pressure, while previous diplomatic efforts have produced repeated starts and stops.
Europe Still Faces Winter Storage Risk
Lower prices have eased some immediate pressure on European energy markets, but the region remains exposed heading into the winter heating season.
European gas storage is currently around 70% full, materially below normal seasonal levels. Reuters recently noted that storage is at historically weak levels while Europe has become increasingly dependent on imported LNG.
That leaves prices vulnerable if temperatures fall sharply or Middle East supply disruptions return. Limited flows through Hormuz have already restricted some LNG exports, particularly from Qatar, one of the world’s largest suppliers.
Norwegian maintenance has also constrained European pipeline supply in recent days, increasing the importance of LNG availability and storage levels.
Lower Energy Prices Could Ease Inflation Pressure
A sustained fall in gas and oil prices would be positive for Europe’s inflation outlook. Energy costs feed through to household bills, manufacturing costs and wider consumer prices.
That could also influence expectations for European interest rates if lower energy prices reduce pressure on inflation. Conversely, another spike in gas prices could strengthen the case for central banks to keep policy restrictive for longer.
For now, traders appear to be pricing in a greater chance of improved Middle East energy flows. European gas remains close to three-week lows, but low storage levels mean the market is still highly sensitive to winter weather and geopolitical developments.
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