TLDR
- Adobe Analytics forecasts U.S. online holiday spending will rise 7% this year to a record $275.1 billion.
- Cyber Week alone is expected to account for $47.5 billion, or 17% of total holiday spending.
- Black Friday sales are projected to hit $12.9 billion, up 9% from last year.
- Amazon’s Prime Day event on October 6-7 is expected to drive $10 billion in October sales.
- AMZN carries a Strong Buy rating from 40 analysts, with a price target implying 33% upside.
Amazon (AMZN) stock sits near $252 as new data points to a record holiday shopping season ahead. Adobe Analytics says online spending this year will climb 7% from 2025, reaching $275.1 billion.
That forecast lands despite ongoing inflation and higher interest rates. Retailers aren’t waiting around either. Adobe reports companies are already rolling out bigger promotions and more flexible payment options like Buy Now, Pay Later.
Cyber Week is shaping up to be the biggest chunk of the season. Adobe expects $47.5 billion in sales during that stretch, which is 17% of all holiday spending. Cyber Monday alone should bring in more than $15 billion.
Black Friday and Prime Day Take Center Stage
Black Friday won’t be far behind. Adobe projects $12.9 billion in sales that day, a 9% jump from last year, driven mostly by discounts on electronics, apparel, and appliances.
But the season kicks off even earlier this year. Amazon’s Prime Day event runs October 6 and 7, well ahead of the traditional holiday rush.
Adobe expects $95.8 billion in total online spending during October, up 8% year-over-year. Of that, $10 billion is expected to go straight to Amazon during Prime Day.
Adobe says this event has reshaped the holiday calendar entirely. Retailers now have to manage inventory and promotions around an earlier spending spike, not just the usual November and December crunch.
Non-gift categories are seeing wild swings too. Adobe expects personal hygiene product sales to jump 150% compared to September levels. Clothing basics could rise 210%, while baby products are expected to climb 113%.
Pet products round out the list with a projected 93% increase, and household cleaning items are expected to rise 49%.
What Shoppers Will Buy This Year
Electronics remain the top draw for gift shoppers. Gaming consoles, TVs, and computers are all expected to sell well, with the Nintendo Switch 2, PlayStation 5/Pro, and Xbox Series X leading console sales.
On the software side, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4, EA Sports FC 27, and Grand Theft Auto VI are tipped to be the top-selling games.
Toys are having a moment too. Beyblade X, Jellycat plush toys, KPop Demon Hunters merchandise, and LEGO Pokémon sets are all expected to move fast off shelves.
Other popular items include AirPods Pro 4, the Dyson Airwrap, Google’s Pixel 11, and Apple’s iPhone 18 Pro and Duo. Meta’s AI glasses, the Oura Ring 5, and Samsung’s Galaxy S26 and Z Fold 8 also made the list of expected bestsellers.
Beyond Amazon, Walmart and Target are expected to benefit from the holiday surge. Credit card companies like American Express should see a lift too, along with device makers such as Apple and Meta Platforms.
Wall Street remains firmly bullish on Amazon heading into this stretch. The stock holds a consensus Strong Buy rating from 40 analysts, built on 39 Buy calls and just one Hold in the past three months.
The average price target sits at $334.70, which implies 33% upside from current levels. That target reflects analyst confidence that Amazon is well positioned to capture a large share of the record spending Adobe is forecasting for this season.
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