TLDR
- Tesla stock slipped about 1% Tuesday, trading near $354
- Wall Street expects Q3 deliveries of roughly 463,000 units, down 7% from last year
- JPMorgan trimmed its Q3 estimate to 482,000 units, pointing to weakness in China and the US
- China wholesale volumes rose 19% year over year, while domestic retail sales fell 21%
- Tesla pushed its Roadster reveal event back two weeks to October 15, citing weather
Tesla (TSLA) stock dropped about 1% on Tuesday, changing hands near $354 a share. The move comes as investors wait for the automaker’s third quarter delivery report, expected later this week.
Wall Street currently expects Tesla to deliver around 463,000 vehicles in Q3. That figure would mark a 7% drop compared to the 497,000 units delivered a year earlier.
Last year’s Q3 numbers got a boost from the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, which was still active at the time. That credit is now gone, making this year’s comparison tougher.
Tesla appears to have offset some of that pressure. The company has picked up more market share in the US EV space this year.
European sales have also improved. Giga Shanghai is now exporting more vehicles to other markets, helping fill some of the gap.
Regional Sales Trends
JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta broke down the regional picture in a note to clients this week. EU registrations tracked down about 9% year over year overall.
France and Germany showed strength, while the UK, Italy, and Spain pulled the average down. It’s a mixed bag across the continent.
China told a different story. July and August wholesale volumes, including exports, rose 19% year over year.
Exports out of China jumped 92% year over year during that stretch. Domestic retail sales in China fell an estimated 21% over the same period.
JPMorgan lowered its own Q3 delivery estimate to 482,000 units. The firm cited softness in both the US and Chinese markets as the reason.
One factor working in Tesla’s favor is its supervised FSD software. The company said FSD subscriptions hit 1.48 million by the end of Q2, up 56% from a year earlier.
Most of those subscribers are likely based in the US. Positive reviews of the software may have helped support US sales during the quarter.
Roadster Reveal Pushed Back
Tesla’s delivery report is expected to land Friday. The news arrives right after the company delayed its long-awaited Roadster reveal.
Roadster event update
We've been tracking the weather closely with local meteorologists, but given the severe conditions predicted & because this event can only be held outdoors, we've made the difficult decision to reschedule.
New date is October 15. Additional details to…
— Tesla (@Tesla) September 28, 2026
The event was originally scheduled for Thursday, October 1. Tesla announced Monday it would push the date to October 15 instead.
“We’ve been tracking the weather closely with local meteorologists, but given the severe conditions predicted and because this event can only be held outdoors, we’ve made the difficult decision to reschedule,” the company said in a post on X.
The timing caught plenty of people off guard. Some are wondering if Tesla simply needed more time to finish preparing the car.
The Information reported weeks ago that the reveal could feature a limited edition Roadster fitted with cold-gas thrusters built with SpaceX. That version reportedly could hover or even fly short distances.
An outdoor venue would make sense for that kind of demonstration. Tesla’s own wording about weather conditions lines up with that reporting.
Tesla first unveiled the next-generation Roadster back in 2017. Reservation holders put down deposits and were originally told deliveries would start in 2020.
Those early depositors have already waited years longer than planned. The new October 15 date adds two more weeks to that wait.
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