Bitcoin and the S&P 500 are two of the most compared assets among investors. One is a digital asset with a fixed supply. The other tracks the 500 largest companies in the United States.
This article uses data from several sources to compare their returns, risk and correlation. The figures run up to October 2026. Sources use different dates and currencies, so small gaps appear between some tables.
Past results do not predict future ones. This article is for information only and is not financial advice.
Bitcoin vs S&P 500: Key Statistics at a Glance
In the year to 9 October 2026, the S&P 500 gained 21.30% while Bitcoin lost 29.56%. These figures come from justETF and use two reference funds priced in euros. The S&P 500 figure is based on the iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF, and the Bitcoin figure is based on CoinShares Physical Bitcoin.
The picture changes over other time frames. Bitcoin gained 34.62% over three months and 180.31% over three years. The S&P 500 gained 5.90% and 74.73% over the same periods.
| Period | S&P 500 | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|
| Year to date | +20.52% | -1.28% |
| 1 month | +6.45% | +9.07% |
| 3 months | +5.90% | +34.62% |
| 6 months | +19.89% | +22.04% |
| 1 year | +21.30% | -29.56% |
| 3 years | +74.73% | +180.31% |
| 5 years | +94.59% | +51.97% |
Over five years the order flips again. The S&P 500 fund returned 94.59%, while the Bitcoin fund returned 51.97%. Year to date, the S&P 500 is up 20.52% and Bitcoin is down 1.28%.
In the past month, Bitcoin led with a gain of 9.07% against 6.45% for the S&P 500. Over six months the two were close, at 22.04% and 19.89%.
Since the start of each fund, the S&P 500 fund is up 876.42% and the Bitcoin fund is up 129.46%. The two funds did not start on the same date, so these totals are not a like-for-like comparison. Matching time frames give a fairer view.
justETF lists both products as long-only. The S&P 500 fund covers US equities. The Bitcoin fund tracks the value of the cryptocurrency.
Long-Term Growth: Compound Returns and Averages
A longer view uses data from August 2011 to August 2026, priced in euros. Over that span Bitcoin had a compound annual growth rate of 87.29%. The S&P 500 had a rate of 16.85%.
Bitcoin’s yearly swings were much wider. Its standard deviation was 145.79%, compared with 13.56% for the S&P 500. Standard deviation measures how far returns move away from their average.
| Measure (2011 to 2026) | Bitcoin | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Compound annual growth rate | 87.29% | 16.85% |
| Standard deviation | 145.79% | 13.56% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.78 | 1.13 |
The Sharpe ratio adjusts return for risk. Bitcoin scored 0.78 and the S&P 500 scored 1.13. A higher number means more return for each unit of risk taken.
Average annual returns change a lot with the time frame. Over the last 10 years Bitcoin averaged 63.0% a year and the S&P 500 averaged 14.9%. Over the last five years the S&P 500 was ahead, at 13.2% against 11.2%.
| Period | Bitcoin yearly average | S&P 500 yearly average | Bitcoin total | S&P 500 total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last year | -27.0% | 21.0% | -27.0% | 21.0% |
| Last 5 years | 11.2% | 13.2% | 70.0% | 86.3% |
| Last 10 years | 63.0% | 14.9% | 13,115.5% | 301.2% |
Total returns follow the same pattern. Over 10 years Bitcoin rose 13,115.5% in this data set and the S&P 500 rose 301.2%. Over five years the S&P 500 rose 86.3% and Bitcoin rose 70.0%.
A separate article from September 2025 put the 10-year gains at 49,944.7% for Bitcoin and 235.4% for the S&P 500. Different end dates and data sets lead to different totals. This shows how much the start and end points shape the result.
The five-year numbers show the effect of the start date. Bitcoin’s average of 11.2% a year is far below its 10-year average of 63.0%. The S&P 500 moved much less between the two periods, from 14.9% to 13.2%.
Annual Returns From 2012 to 2025
Bitcoin has had both the best and worst calendar years in this data. It rose 5,189.37% in 2013 and 1,162.50% in 2017. It fell 72.13% in 2018 and 62.02% in 2022.
The S&P 500 moved in a narrower range. Its best year was 2021 at 39.44%, and its worst was 2022 at a loss of 13.04%. It posted a gain in 13 of the 14 years shown.
| Year | Bitcoin | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -17.16% | 4.23% |
| 2024 | 135.04% | 32.97% |
| 2023 | 146.79% | 21.90% |
| 2022 | -62.02% | -13.04% |
| 2021 | 72.70% | 39.44% |
| 2020 | 270.28% | 8.39% |
| 2019 | 97.82% | 34.01% |
| 2018 | -72.13% | 0.15% |
| 2017 | 1,162.50% | 7.08% |
| 2016 | 131.62% | 15.63% |
| 2015 | 49.70% | 13.06% |
| 2014 | -50.19% | 29.14% |
| 2013 | 5,189.37% | 26.66% |
| 2012 | 183.50% | 13.76% |
Bitcoin had four down years in the 14 shown: 2014, 2018, 2022 and 2025. The first three were each followed by a gain in the next year. The 2025 loss was 17.16%.
The two assets moved apart in some years. In 2018, Bitcoin lost 72.13% while the S&P 500 was flat at 0.15%. In 2020, Bitcoin gained 270.28% and the S&P 500 gained 8.39%.
Some years saw both assets rise strongly. In 2021 Bitcoin gained 72.70% and the S&P 500 gained 39.44%. In 2019 the pattern was similar, at 97.82% and 34.01%.
Both fell together in 2022, with Bitcoin down 62.02% and the S&P 500 down 13.04%. The 2025 figures differ slightly between the sources used for this article, so readers should check which data set they are reading.
The count of up years also differs. Bitcoin had gains in 10 of the 14 years and the S&P 500 had gains in 13 of 14. Bitcoin’s gains, when they came, were often much larger than those of the S&P 500.
Volatility and Drawdowns
Volatility measures how much prices move up and down. Over one year, Bitcoin’s volatility was 40.44% in euro terms and the S&P 500’s was 12.43%. The gap holds over longer periods as well.
Over three years Bitcoin’s volatility was 44.16% against 15.47% for the S&P 500. Over five years it was 48.61% against 17.48%.
Bitcoin’s volatility rose as the window grew longer. The reading went from 40.44% to 44.16% to 48.61% as the period moved from one to five years. The S&P 500 rose more slowly, from 12.43% to 17.48%.
| Measure | S&P 500 | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|
| Volatility, 1 year | 12.43% | 40.44% |
| Volatility, 3 years | 15.47% | 44.16% |
| Volatility, 5 years | 17.48% | 48.61% |
| Maximum drawdown, 1 year | -7.49% | -50.94% |
| Maximum drawdown, 3 years | -22.60% | -51.88% |
| Maximum drawdown, 5 years | -22.60% | -74.24% |
| Maximum drawdown, since inception | -33.71% | -74.24% |
A drawdown measures the fall from a peak to a low point. Over the past year the S&P 500 fund had a maximum drawdown of 7.49%. The Bitcoin fund fell 50.94% from peak to low in the same year.
Over five years, the S&P 500 drawdown was 22.60% and the Bitcoin drawdown was 74.24%. Since the start of each fund, the worst fall for the S&P 500 fund is 33.71%.
A 74.24% fall means an investor would need a gain of about 288% to return to the earlier peak. This is one reason drawdowns matter as much as returns.
Many investors feel drawdowns more than averages. A fall of 50% in a single year is hard to hold through for some people. The S&P 500 fund’s one-year fall of 7.49% was far milder.
The September 2025 article gives wider ranges for long-run volatility. It puts Bitcoin’s standard deviation at 70% to 90% and the S&P 500’s at 15% to 20%. It also says the S&P 500 briefly showed higher volatility than Bitcoin during US tariff news in 2025.
Return Per Risk: How Much Reward for the Risk Taken
Return per risk divides a fund’s return by its volatility. It shows how much return an investor received for each unit of risk. justETF reports the figure for three periods.
Over one year the S&P 500 scored 1.71 and Bitcoin scored -0.73. The negative number reflects Bitcoin’s 29.56% loss over that period.
| Period | S&P 500 | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 1.71 | -0.73 |
| 3 years | 1.32 | 0.93 |
| 5 years | 0.81 | 0.18 |
Over three years the S&P 500 scored 1.32 and Bitcoin scored 0.93. Bitcoin’s three-year gain of 180.31% was large, but its 44.16% volatility lowered the score.
Over five years the S&P 500 scored 0.81 and Bitcoin scored 0.18. The S&P 500 led in all three periods on this measure.
The long-run Sharpe ratios agree. The S&P 500 scored 1.13 and Bitcoin scored 0.78 from 2011 to 2026. Bitcoin’s raw returns were higher, but its risk was higher too.
These ratios depend on the dates chosen. A different start point would change the numbers. Investors often check several periods before they draw conclusions.
Return per risk is not a full picture of an investment. It treats up and down moves the same way. An investor who cares most about losses may prefer to read the drawdown figures.
Bitcoin and S&P 500 Correlation
Correlation shows how closely two assets move together. It runs from -1 to 1. A value of 1 means they move in the same direction, and -1 means they move in opposite directions.
Real assets rarely reach either end. Values usually sit somewhere in between.
| Reading | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Latest 30-day correlation | 0.68 | Newhedge |
| 30-day correlation, often seen over 5 years | Above 0.70 | Newhedge |
| 2025 correlation | 0.88 | September 2025 article |
| Early 2020, before Covid-19 | Negative | Newhedge |
| 2019 Bitcoin rise from about $3,000 to $12,000 | Sharply negative | Newhedge |
Newhedge data shows a 30-day correlation of 0.68 at the latest reading. That snapshot lists the S&P 500 at $7,811.54 and Bitcoin at $83,673.69. Newhedge says the 30-day figure has often topped 70% over the past five years.
The link has not always been strong. In early 2020, before the Covid-19 pandemic, the two were negatively correlated. During Bitcoin’s 2019 rise from about $3,000 to $12,000, the correlation turned sharply negative.
Then the pandemic pulled the two closer together. Bitcoin and stocks moved in step as central bank policy and the economic shock drove markets.
The September 2025 article puts the 2025 correlation at 0.88. It says both assets now react in a similar way to interest rates, inflation and market mood. Different methods give different readings, so the 0.68 and 0.88 figures should not be treated as the same measure.
Newhedge says that when correlation is high, Bitcoin acts more like a risk asset. When it falls, Bitcoin’s own factors, such as its fixed supply, adoption and halving events, have more influence. That is an analyst view and not a certainty.
Correlation is also not fixed. It changes with market conditions and with the window used to measure it. A 30-day reading can swing quickly, while a one-year reading moves more slowly.
What Is Inside the S&P 500
The S&P 500 tracks the 500 largest US stocks. The iShares fund used by justETF holds 503 positions. The index itself has 500 holdings.
The top 10 holdings make up 37.76% of the fund. NVIDIA is the largest at 8.07%, followed by Apple at 7.03% and Microsoft at 5.69%.
| Sector | Weight |
|---|---|
| Technology | 45.23% |
| Finance | 13.62% |
| Healthcare | 9.09% |
| Consumer non-cyclicals | 8.88% |
| Other | 23.18% |
Technology is the largest sector at 45.23%. Finance follows at 13.62%, healthcare at 9.09% and consumer non-cyclicals at 8.88%. All other sectors together account for 23.18%.
By country, 97.48% of the fund is in the United States. Ireland accounts for 1.15% and other countries for 1.37%.
Bitcoin has no holdings, sectors or company earnings. The CoinShares fund tracks the price of the coin. Funds that track the S&P 500 pay a dividend yield of 1.5% to 2% a year, while Bitcoin pays none.
Because of these weights, a few large technology firms have a large effect on the index. Dow Jones reported that a new wave of enthusiasm about AI pushed tech stocks higher in early October 2026.
Concentration in large technology firms is one risk to watch. The top three holdings alone, NVIDIA, Apple and Microsoft, add up to 20.79% of the fund. Broadcom, Alphabet C, Meta, Micron and Tesla each hold between 1.56% and 2.65%.
What Drives Each Asset and What a Mixed Portfolio Looked Like
Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins. This limit is built into its code. A halving takes place about every four years and cuts miner rewards in half.
The September 2025 article says past halvings were followed by price rallies. It links this to slower growth in new supply. Past patterns do not guarantee the same result.
| Factor | Bitcoin | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Main drivers | Fixed supply, halvings, adoption | Company earnings, US growth, fund flows |
| Dividends | None | About 1.5% to 2% a year |
| Long-term average | Not stated in sources | About 10% a year |
| Main risks | Regulation, technology, price swings | Recession, inflation |
| Rules in Europe | MiCA framework | Standard securities rules |
The S&P 500 depends on company earnings, US economic growth and wider economic data. Steady flows from pension funds and ETFs also support the index. Its long-term average return is about 10% a year, according to the article.
Some analysts argue for mixing the two. The September 2025 article says a portfolio of 90% S&P 500 and 10% Bitcoin returned 495% to 700% over the past decade. The S&P 500 alone returned 235.4% over that span.
This result depends on Bitcoin’s strong 10-year run. A mix over a weaker period would look different. Bitcoin’s drawdowns of more than 50% would also affect any portfolio that holds it.
Institutions also hold Bitcoin. The article says professional investors hold more than a quarter of the $27.4 billion in US Bitcoin ETFs. Companies such as Strategy keep Bitcoin in their reserves.
Risks differ too. Bitcoin faces regulatory uncertainty, technology risk and large price swings. In Europe, the MiCA framework has added oversight and investor protection.
The S&P 500 faces recession risk and inflation. The article also says stocks and bonds have become more correlated. That can reduce the diversifying effect of bonds in a downturn.
Bitcoin’s role as a hedge is debated. The article describes it as a hedge against long-term loss in the value of the dollar and other currencies. The data here shows it also fell sharply when stocks fell, as in 2022.
The Latest Market Picture in October 2026
On 6 October 2026, Bitcoin fell below $86,000. It topped out near $86,600 in late morning trading and later traded at $85,571, down 0.3%. Dow Jones reported that Bitcoin was up 2% since the start of October.
The S&P 500 reached an intraday high of 7,830 and was on pace to settle above its record from August. A new wave of AI enthusiasm lifted tech stocks. Bitcoin stayed in a range between $84,000 and $87,000.
Seasonality is getting attention. October has been positive for Bitcoin in 10 of the past 13 years. The fourth quarter of 2025 ended a six-year winning streak for that quarter.
Analysts at 21shares said a close above $88,000 in October would confirm a trend change and make $100,000 possible by year end. A slide to $81,000 could lead to $71,300, they said. Neither outcome is certain.
The Federal Reserve meets on 27 and 28 October. Last month’s meeting led to the first rate rise in three years. Expectations for another rise this month have been trimmed.
Longer term forecasts vary widely. The September 2025 article says analysts expect Bitcoin could range from $160,000 to $900,000 by 2030, with some scenarios as high as $2 million. For the S&P 500, the article points to a long-term average of about 10% a year.
Short-term moves are hard to predict. The 21shares scenarios give a range of $71,300 to $100,000 from a starting price of $85,571. That is a drop of about 17% at the low end and a rise of about 17% at the high end.
What the Statistics Show
The data shows two different assets. Bitcoin has produced much larger gains over long periods, but with far larger losses. The S&P 500 has delivered steadier returns with smaller drops.
Over the past year the S&P 500 did better, with a 21.30% gain against a 29.56% loss. Over three years Bitcoin did better, and over five years the S&P 500 is ahead.
Several measures point the same way for the S&P 500. It had a higher Sharpe ratio, a higher return per risk score in all three periods and much smaller drawdowns. Bitcoin had far higher returns over 10 years and over three years.
Correlation has risen in recent years, so the two do not always move apart. Time frame, currency and data source all change the numbers. Readers should check these details before they compare figures.
