TLDR
- SpaceX (SPCX) stock fell 2% on Friday to about $146, extending its weekly loss to more than 10% ahead of Q3 earnings Tuesday.
- Analysts expect EPS of $0.14 to $0.23 on revenue of $12.89 billion, which would be SpaceX’s first profit.
- FactSet expects $6.47 billion in AI revenue as the company keeps adding compute deals.
- Evercore ISI raised its price target to $275 from $230, while options traders price in only a 5.3% move.
- Tesla reports Wednesday, and merger talk is growing, with a 24% chance of an announcement by year-end on one prediction market.
SpaceX (SPCX) stock closed Friday at $146.03, down 2%, and has lost more than 10% over the past week. The drop comes ahead of the company’s Q3 earnings report late Tuesday, October 20.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The pullback tracks a wider sell-off in AI names this month. SPCX has slipped below its 50-day line, though it remains well above its August record low of $104.83. It sits far under the mid-June record high of $225.64.
Analysts expect earnings of 14 cents per share, though more recent forecasts point to 23 cents. Either figure would be the first positive reading since the June listing. In Q2, the company posted a loss of 9 cents per share.
FactSet puts revenue at $12.89 billion. That compares with $7.81 billion in Q2 and $4.694 billion in Q1. Cash burn is expected to stay heavy at $10.8 billion because of big capital spending.
Segment Forecasts and AI Deals
The space segment is expected to bring in $1.4 billion, up from $962 million in Q2. Connectivity, which includes Starlink, is forecast at about $4.84 billion, versus $4.29 billion last quarter.
AI is the big swing factor. FactSet expects $6.47 billion in AI revenue as SpaceX wins compute deals and builds out data centers. xAI’s Grok has not drawn many customers, so the company has moved to sell its spare computing power.
At a September Goldman Sachs conference, CFO Bret Johnsen said SpaceX closed a hosting deal worth $1.11 billion per month starting December 1. That works out to roughly $13 billion a year.
William Blair counted it as the fourth compute agreement in four months worth more than $11 billion in annual recurring revenue. Customers include Anthropic and Alphabet (GOOGL), with the Department of Defense also a possibility.
In early October, SpaceX said it plans to raise $40 billion to buy Nvidia (NVDA) AI chips. The company wants 5 to 10 gigawatts of compute by the end of 2027, up from a 2026 target of 2 gigawatts. It plans to fly its first orbital compute satellites next year.
Starlink news has been steady too. SpaceX bought more spectrum for its mobile service this month. The FCC also approved 15,000 more next-generation Starlink satellites.
Starship and Analyst Views
Musk is expected to outline Starship flight 15 after flight 14 reached orbit in September. SpaceX may try to catch the booster and spacecraft, depending on what it learned from flight 14.
Musk has trimmed his launch goal, though. He told a White House event he now wants 50 to 100 Starship flights next year, down from 356.
Evercore ISI analyst Kutgun Maral lifted his price target to $275 from $230 and kept an outperform rating. He said the quarter may be judged more on targets and progress than on the numbers. He sees SpaceX closing 2026 with annualized revenue near $104 billion.
Options traders see a muted reaction. One analyst says the market prices in a 5.3% move, or a range of $140 to $156. JPMorgan has warned that AI stocks may not rebound as fast as they did in July.
Tesla (TSLA) reports Wednesday, with analysts expecting EPS of $0.44 on revenue of $27.8 billion. Barclays has said SpaceX might announce a deal to acquire Tesla by December.
Chart Analysis
SPCX is in a pullback after a rally from the August low near $105 to a high near $176 in early October. The stock has broken below the rising trendline that held since August. It also failed to hold the $150 to $158 zone, which now acts as resistance.
The RSI sits at 43, down from overbought levels near 70, which shows fading momentum. The MACD has crossed below its signal line and the histogram is negative at -1.95, a bearish reading. Support sits near $140, with a wider zone between $125 and $133.
What to watch: a close below $140 could open the door to the $125 to $133 zone. A move back above $158 would repair the trend.
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