TLDR
- Moderna (MRNA) closed Thursday at $202.63, down 18%, after trial data leaked early. It fell as much as 26% during the day.
- Merck confirmed the leak. The vaccine plus Keytruda cut the risk of recurrence or death by 42%.
- More than $17 billion in market value disappeared. The stock had nearly quadrupled since mid-August.
- Support sits near $174, with $116 the next level below.
- The stock was down 3% in premarket Friday. Full data is due Saturday in Madrid.
Moderna (MRNA) stock closed Thursday at $202.63, down 18%. The drop was its biggest intraday fall on record, at one point reaching 26%.
Results from a late-stage melanoma trial leaked online before their planned debut. Merck, Moderna’s partner, confirmed the data came out early.
More than $17 billion in market value disappeared in one session. It was the stock’s worst day since Aug. 20.
The numbers themselves were positive. The personalized vaccine plus Keytruda cut the risk of recurrence or death by 42%.
What the Leaked Trial Showed
Merck also said the risk of the cancer spreading or death fell 38%. The trial, called INTerpath-001, covered 1,137 patients.
After two years, 82.2% of patients on the combination were alive and cancer-free. That compares with 70% for those on Keytruda alone.
No new safety issues were flagged. An earlier, smaller trial showed a 49% cut, though it used different patients and is not a direct comparison.
The sell-off came after a huge run. Moderna nearly quadrupled from mid-August to Wednesday, when it posted its highest close since December 2021.
On Aug. 19, the stock jumped 177% to close at $174.38 after the company said the trial met its goals. It is up 551% this year, per StockStory, and still sits about 18% below its 52-week high of $245.81.
Chart Levels to Watch
The six-month chart shows Moderna trading between roughly $50 and $80 until a large gap higher on Aug. 19. It then climbed to about $246 by Oct. 21, a steep uptrend that Thursday’s drop has now dented.
Support sits near $174, the close on the record August day. Thursday’s low came within 4% of it before buyers stepped in, and $116, where the gap began, is the next level below.
What to watch: holding above $174 keeps the post-gap uptrend intact, while a sustained break below it could open the door to $116.
Merck fell nearly 4% at its low before paring more than half the loss. The vaccine is central to Moderna’s story, but it is an add-on for Merck.
Healthcare peers moved the other way. Eli Lilly added more than $33 billion in market value, and Johnson & Johnson and Pfizer rose.
The iShares Biotechnology ETF and SPDR S&P Biotech ETF were only modestly lower. They moved roughly in step with the S&P 500.
Moderna has had 65 moves greater than 5% over the last year. Even by that standard, Thursday stood out.
The stock fell about 3% in premarket trading Friday, to $195.90. The full data is due Saturday at the European Society for Medical Oncology meeting in Madrid, with attention on how lower-risk patients fared.
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