TLDR
- Bitcoin derivatives traders are showing cautious optimism for further upside despite September’s historical risks.
- The recent 3% price increase reflects a slight bullish sentiment in the Bitcoin market.
- Passive buying, rather than aggressive purchasing, is driving Bitcoin’s price movement according to market data.
- Open interest on perpetual contracts has risen by 2.35% to $30 billion in the past two days.
- Bitcoin options traders are placing bullish bets, with significant open interest at $120,000, $130,000, and $140,000 strikes.
Bitcoin derivatives traders are showing cautious optimism for Bitcoin’s price movement in September, despite macroeconomic uncertainty. While seasonality typically brings bearish pressure in September, traders are positioning for a potential upside. Bitcoin has recently seen a 3% increase over the last two days, currently trading at $110,000, according to CoinGecko data.
Bitcoin Derivatives Market Shows Passive Buying Trends
Bitcoin’s recent price uptick comes amidst a lack of aggressive buying activity. Data from CoinGlass reveals flat cumulative volume deltas, indicating passive buying interest. The 10% order book depth shows a noticeable increase in passive bids, signaling traders’ hesitation to commit to more aggressive positions.
Open interest on perpetual contracts has surged by 2.35%, reaching $30 billion over the last two days. Traders are positioning ahead of this week’s crucial employment data release. Although the increase in open interest signals growing market activity, the muted volume suggests that buying pressure remains subdued.
Bitcoin Options Market Indicates Bullish Sentiment
In contrast, the Bitcoin options market displays a more bullish sentiment. Sean Dawson, head of research at Dervie, noted that options traders are betting on higher Bitcoin prices. The build-up of open interest at the $120,000, $130,000, and $140,000 strikes indicates increasing confidence in a potential price rally.
Dawson pointed out that market makers are net long gamma, which could limit upside moves due to hedge selling. Conversely, a price drop would trigger dealers to buy to hedge their positions, mitigating further downside. Despite this, Bitcoin’s implied volatility remains steady at around 30%, reflecting a period of subdued price movements.
Despite the relatively calm market, investors are hedging against potential risks. The one-week 25 delta skew for Bitcoin options increased from 6.75 to 12, reflecting heightened demand for downside protection. Traders are watching closely as September’s end approaches, with the outcome of Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls report being pivotal for future price direction.
