TLDR
- AMD reports Q1 2026 earnings after markets close Tuesday, May 5
- Wall Street expects EPS of $1.28 and revenue of $9.88 billion, both up ~33% year-over-year
- Options traders see AMD stock swinging up to 8% in either direction following results
- RBC raised its price target to $325 but kept a Hold rating, citing valuation concerns
- D.A. Davidson upgraded AMD to Buy with a $375 target, citing strong CPU demand from agentic AI
AMD goes into Tuesday’s earnings report on a roll. The stock has climbed nearly 70% year-to-date, hitting record highs as AI hardware demand shows no signs of cooling off.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., AMD
The chipmaker will post Q1 2026 results after the closing bell on May 5. Analysts are expecting revenue of $9.88 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.28, both roughly 33% above the year-ago period.
Options pricing tells a clear story: traders expect a move of up to 8% in either direction by the end of the week. With the stock closing Friday just above $360, that range puts a best-case scenario near $389 and a pullback scenario around $331.
AMD has been riding a wave of positive momentum, boosted by newly announced partnerships with Anthropic and Meta. Those deals have reinforced the bull case that AMD is firmly in the AI infrastructure buildout.
Analyst Targets Split Between Caution and Conviction
RBC Capital’s Srini Pajjuri raised his price target from $230 to $325 ahead of results but held his rating at Hold. He expects a beat-and-raise quarter, though a modest one. His main concern is valuation — AMD currently trades at roughly 33x 2027 earnings, a 75% premium to Nvidia.
Pajjuri flagged wafer supply constraints as a limiting factor and sees AMD’s CPU exposure as lower than Intel’s — meaning less leverage on that side of the recovery.
D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria took a more constructive view. Following Intel’s strong Q1, Luria upgraded AMD to Buy and lifted his target from $220 to $375. He believes Intel’s blowout quarter is a direct read-through for AMD’s CPU business.
Luria’s argument centers on agentic AI. He cited Intel CEO Pat Tan’s comments that the GPU-to-CPU ratio for pretraining workloads — historically around 8:1 — is moving toward parity as AI shifts toward inference and agentic tasks. That’s a meaningful demand tailwind for AMD’s EPYC CPUs.
Revenue Estimates Get a Lift
Luria lifted his 2026 revenue estimate for AMD by $2 billion and raised his gross profit estimate by $1.5 billion — well above consensus. He believes AMD has room to raise prices across its product portfolio as demand continues to outpace supply.
He also pointed to Intel CFO David Zinsner’s comments that the industry could grow by double digits with momentum extending into 2027.
On the AI GPU side, analysts broadly expect AMD to reaffirm the ramp schedule for its MI4xx Helios lineup at OpenAI and Meta. That confirmation would matter to investors tracking AMD’s push to close the gap with Nvidia in the data center GPU market.
Wall Street’s overall take: Moderate Buy, with 19 Buy ratings and nine Holds. The average price target of $300 sits below where the stock is currently trading, meaning AMD has already outrun many analyst targets following its recent run.
The Q1 report drops Tuesday after the close.
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