TLDR
- Delta Air Lines raised its Q1 revenue outlook to high-single-digit growth, up from 5ā7%, citing strong demand
- American Airlines now expects at least 10% Q1 revenue growth ā its biggest quarterly revenue jump ever
- JetBlue raised unit revenue guidance to 5ā7% growth, up from near-flat
- Airline stocks had fallen 14ā26% since the Iran war began, but jumped Tuesday on the positive updates
- Strong travel demand is helping carriers offset rising jet fuel costs
Delta Air Lines and American Airlines stocks rose sharply on Tuesday after both carriers raised their first-quarter revenue outlooks, even as surging jet fuel prices weighed on costs.
Delta shares climbed around 5% in morning trading. American Airlines rose roughly 2.7%. JetBlue was up about 0.5%, while Frontier gained 7.5%.
The gains came after all three carriers updated investors ahead of the JPMorgan Industrials Conference in Washington on Tuesday.
Delta said it now expects first-quarter revenue to grow by a high-single-digit percentage. That’s up from its earlier forecast of 5% to 7% growth. The company kept its earnings per share guidance steady at 50 to 90 cents.
Delta CEO Ed Bastian said at the conference: “We’re seeing strength in every market that we look at.” The company pointed to accelerating demand from both consumers and corporate travelers heading into March.
American Airlines raised its revenue growth forecast to at least 10% for the first quarter, up from a prior range of 7% to 10%. The company said that would be the largest year-over-year quarterly revenue increase in its history.
However, American noted that rapid increases in jet fuel prices will push its adjusted loss per share to the lower end of its 10 to 50 cent loss guidance range.
Why Airline Stocks Had Been Under Pressure
Airline stocks had taken a heavy hit since the Iran war began. Southwest Airlines had dropped 26% from the start of the conflict through Monday’s close, making it the second-worst performer in the S&P 500 over that period.
United Airlines fell 21%, American dropped 20%, JetBlue declined 23%, and Delta was down 14%. Those losses came despite a partial rebound on Monday when oil prices pulled back.
The core fear for investors has been that higher jet fuel costs would crush profits. But Tuesday’s guidance updates suggest demand has been strong enough to cushion the blow.
Carriers Signal They Can Pass on Fuel Costs
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said last week he expects a short-term surge in airfares before prices normalize, according to The Wall Street Journal. He also said last Monday was United’s best-ever day of bookings.
German carrier Lufthansa also reported a sharp rise in long-haul travel demand since the conflict began.
UBS analyst Atul Maheswari said investors would be focused on “the degree to which higher fuel costs can realistically be passed along through increased fares.”
JetBlue said strong travel demand was offsetting both higher fuel costs and disruptions caused by two winter weather events in the quarter. The carrier now expects unit revenue ā revenue per available seat mile ā to grow 5% to 7%, versus a prior forecast of flat to 0.4% growth.
All five major U.S. carriers presented at the JPMorgan conference on Tuesday, and some may provide updated full-year guidance as well.
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