TLDR
- Google’s global web traffic rose 4% year over year in June to 2.8 billion visits, despite a 736% surge in traffic to Claude and a 98% rise for Meta AI
- Google’s mobile daily average users climbed 12% year over year, even as ChatGPT and Claude saw massive user growth
- Gemini’s web traffic has more than quadrupled over the past year, gaining ground on ChatGPT without cannibalizing Google Search
- Alphabet’s Q2 earnings are due July 22; BofA sees potential upside to Street search estimates given stable traffic and strong eCommerce volumes
- BofA reiterates a Buy rating and $430 price target; 86% of 67 analysts tracked by FactSet rate GOOGL a Buy
Alphabet (GOOGL) stock is trading at $355.67, up 14% in 2026 but down 6.5% since the end of May. With Q2 earnings due July 22, fresh traffic data is giving bulls something to work with.
New data from BofA Securities, compiled using Similarweb and Sensor Tower figures, shows Google’s global web visits hit 2.8 billion in June, up 4% year over year. That’s not explosive growth, but it’s steady — and it came in the face of real competition.
Claude saw a 736% traffic surge over the same period. Meta AI was up 98%. ChatGPT visits were flat. Despite all that noise, Google held its ground.
Mobile told a similar story. Google’s daily average users on mobile rose 12% year over year. ChatGPT surged 51% and Claude jumped 1,206%. Still, Google’s absolute user base kept growing.
Gemini Isn’t Eating Search
One of the bigger concerns heading into 2026 was whether Google’s own AI product, Gemini, would pull users away from traditional search. That hasn’t happened.
Gemini’s web traffic more than quadrupled over the past year. Daily mobile users climbed 295%. Those gains came at ChatGPT’s expense, not Google Search’s. Google has woven Gemini into its AI Overview feature on search, which appears to be working as intended.
BofA analyst Justin Post noted that Google’s comments on an “expansionary moment for Search” point to potential continued strength. He sees upside to Street estimates given stable traffic and solid eCommerce volumes in Q2.
The search business still makes up the majority of Alphabet’s total revenue, so these numbers matter a lot heading into earnings.
Analyst Picture
On the last earnings report, April 30, Alphabet beat hard. EPS came in at $5.11 versus the $2.68 consensus. Revenue hit $109.9 billion, up 21.8% year over year, against estimates of $106.96 billion.
The company also raised its quarterly dividend to $0.22 per share, up from $0.21.
BofA kept its Buy rating and $430 price target on Monday. Scotiabank has a $450 target. Raymond James has a Strong Buy with a $425 objective. The consensus across 70 analysts sits at a Buy rating with an average target of $378.53.
What’s Weighing on the Stock
It hasn’t all been smooth. An exodus of researchers from DeepMind rattled investors in June, raising questions about Alphabet’s ability to compete with OpenAI and Anthropic on frontier AI models.
Regulatory pressure is building too. The UK has brought Google Cloud under direct oversight. There’s an ongoing legal dispute in India over its ads platform. And there are fresh concerns about AI model access being provided to Singapore-based affiliates of Chinese firms.
Insiders have sold $8 million worth of stock in the past 90 days. Director Frances Arnold sold 112 shares on June 30 at $351.28.
Institutional interest remains strong. Sageworth Trust Co increased its Alphabet stake by 56.1% in Q1. Overall, 27.26% of the stock is held by institutional investors.
Alphabet’s market cap sits at $4.30 trillion. Its 12-month high is $404.47.
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