TLDR
- Compass Point analysts rate Bullish crypto exchange as “neutral” with $45 price target, 16% below current price
- Stock trading at 110 times projected 2026 earnings, considered overvalued by analysts
- Regulatory hurdles likely prevent US market entry until Congress passes CLARITY Act, possibly 2026
- Bullish could compete with Coinbase due to lower fees if it gets US approval
- Stock debuted at $37 in August, peaked at $118, now trading around $54-59
Investment bank Compass Point initiated coverage of crypto exchange Bullish with a neutral rating and $45 price target. The target represents about 16% below the stock’s current trading price.
Analysts Ed Engel and Abdullah Dilawar expressed concerns about the company’s ability to enter the U.S. market. They cited regulatory uncertainty as a major obstacle for the Peter Thiel-backed exchange.
#Bullish Gets Cautious Outlook from Compass Point
The current valuation is hard to justify, said analyst Ed Engel, initiating coverage with a neutral rating and $45 price target. #crypto pic.twitter.com/J38hB5d9aB
— CryptOpus (@ImCryptOpus) September 3, 2025
The stock trades at 110 times its projected 2026 core operating profit. This valuation metric suggests the shares are overpriced according to the analysts.
Bullish went public on the New York Stock Exchange in August. Shares were initially offered at $37 but soared to over $118 after the debut.
Regulatory Challenges Block US Entry
The analysts believe Bullish cannot enter U.S. markets until Congress passes the CLARITY Act. This legislation would clarify regulatory jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC for crypto assets.
The CLARITY Act passage could take until the first half of 2026. Until then, regulatory uncertainty prevents the exchange from operating in America’s largest crypto market.
New York’s restrictive BitLicense requirements present another hurdle. The state’s Department of Financial Services historically shows less hospitality toward novel blockchain technologies.
Bullish operates as its own market maker through an automated market maker system. This setup could raise conflict-of-interest concerns with New York regulators.
The exchange currently focuses on institutional investors in Europe and Hong Kong. It offers trading and futures betting on digital assets but avoids retail customers.
Competition Potential Against Coinbase
If Bullish secures U.S. approval, it could become a strong competitor to Coinbase. The analysts noted Bullish’s competitive fee structure as an advantage.
Coinbase dominates institutional trading in the United States. The platform’s fees are higher than international exchanges with limited domestic competition.
Bullish’s lower fee rates could help capture market share from Coinbase. The exchange targets the same institutional client base that drives Coinbase’s revenue.
The company holds a $2.7 billion crypto treasury, mostly in bitcoin. This exposure ties the stock’s performance closely to bitcoin price movements.
Bitcoin’s volatility creates both opportunities and risks for shareholders. The crypto holding represents a double-edged sword for the stock price.
Engel’s price target assumes bitcoin reaches $160,000 and includes 50% probability of U.S. market entry. U.S. expansion alone could add an estimated $12 per share in value.
Bullish shares closed down 12% Wednesday, trading around $54. The stock previously hit highs of $118 after the August IPO debut.
The analysts recommend waiting for better buying opportunities within one to two quarters. Current valuations make the stock less attractive at present levels.
