TLDR
- BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by end of 2025 and $1 million by 2028
- Hayes expects global money printing under Trump administration to extend crypto bull market into 2026
- U.S. Treasury bond buybacks could inject liquidity and drive investors toward riskier assets like Bitcoin
- Hayes argues Bitcoin outperforms stocks, housing, and gold when adjusted for currency debasement
- Many analysts remain skeptical, citing institutional outflow concerns and potential market corrections
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has made a bold prediction that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. The forecast comes as Hayes points to U.S. Treasury policies and global monetary trends as key drivers for the cryptocurrency’s future growth.
Hayes shared his outlook in a recent interview with Kyle Chassé, a longtime bitcoin and Web3 entrepreneur. The current Maelstrom CIO believes governments worldwide are just beginning aggressive monetary expansion policies that could fuel crypto markets well into 2026.
Arthur Hayes: Doesn't Believe in Four-Year Cycle, BTC Will Break Through 200k
During an interview with Kyle Chasse, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, discussed the impact of macro liquidity on the cryptocurrency market. He pointed out that the market consensus is that the… pic.twitter.com/Ty84FBmp2B
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) September 15, 2025
The prediction centers on expected U.S. Treasury bond buybacks under the Trump administration. Hayes argues these buybacks will inject fresh liquidity into the economy by reducing Treasury market volatility and freeing up capital. This environment could redirect investor flows into riskier assets like Bitcoin.
Hayes extends his bullish stance even further, suggesting Bitcoin could hit $1 million by the end of 2028. He ties these projections to continued U.S. fiscal spending and broader political developments under a potential second Trump presidency.
Money Printing as Market Driver
Hayes believes President Trump’s second term has not yet fully unleashed spending programs that could arrive from mid-2026 onward. He suggests that if expectations for money printing become extreme, he may consider taking partial profits, but currently sees investors underestimating the scale of potential liquidity flows.
The BitMEX co-founder ties his outlook to broader geopolitical shifts. He describes the erosion of a unipolar world order as pushing policymakers toward fiscal stimulus and central bank easing to keep citizens and markets calm.
Hayes also raised the possibility of strains within Europe, including a potential French default that could destabilize the euro. He sees this as another factor likely to accelerate global printing presses.
Bitcoin recently reached a record $124,000 in mid-August before pulling back. Hayes pushed back on concerns that the asset has stalled, contrasting its performance with other asset classes.
He noted that while U.S. stocks are higher in dollar terms, they have not fully recovered relative to gold since the 2008 financial crisis. Real estate also lags when measured against gold, with only a handful of U.S. technology giants consistently outperforming.
Market Skepticism Remains
Many analysts remain cautious about Hayes’ ambitious targets. Several experts point out that achieving a $200,000 Bitcoin price in the short term would face significant headwinds including slowing institutional inflows and reduced retail momentum.
Current challenges also include potential large-scale miner sell-offs that could add downward pressure. Global economic uncertainty presents another obstacle through weak credit growth, inflationary risks, and possible tighter regulatory environments.
Some analysts suggest Bitcoin could face a correction, bringing it closer to $100,000 before any new rally takes shape. They view Hayes’ projections as aspirational targets highlighting potential upside rather than firm predictions.
Hayes acknowledges these risks but maintains that structural forces, particularly government liquidity injections, will ultimately drive Bitcoin higher. He argues that bitcoin’s dominance becomes clearer once assets are viewed through the lens of currency debasement.
For investors frustrated that Bitcoin is not posting fresh highs every week, Hayes suggests expectations are misplaced. He believes the real edge of holding Bitcoin comes from years of compounding outperformance rather than short-term speculation.
Bitcoin currently remains above $100,000, well short of Hayes’ $200,000 target but showing resilience despite high volatility. Market participants are closely monitoring U.S. Treasury actions, especially the scale and timing of potential bond buybacks.
