TLDR
- Bitcoin recently rallied 20% in April, wiping out annual losses but has steadied around $95,000 as ETF inflows slow
- After strong ETF inflows for eight straight days, Wednesday saw $56.2 million in outflows
- Economic concerns remain as US GDP unexpectedly shrank in Q1 and trade tensions persist
- Historical pattern suggests Bitcoin price increases sixfold when network age increases by 40%
- If this pattern holds, projections indicate Bitcoin could reach $351,046 in 2025
Bitcoin has been showing rangebound performance recently, hovering just below the $95,000 mark. This follows a strong rally through April that saw the cryptocurrency gain nearly 20%, effectively erasing its losses for the year.
As of Thursday, Bitcoin was steady at $94,943.4.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency had previously slumped to lows around $70,000 in March and April of 2025. These were the weakest levels seen so far this year.
This recent price stability comes after a period of recovery. Bitcoin’s gains were largely driven by bargain buying as investors took advantage of the lower prices.
Institutional investors played a key role in the rally through spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Data showed that Bitcoin ETFs recorded eight consecutive days of large inflows through late April.
However, this ETF buying trend appears to be cooling off. ETFs recorded approximately $56.2 million in outflows on Wednesday.
The broader cryptocurrency market has mostly lagged behind Bitcoin’s rebound. While Bitcoin benefited from large buying action, other cryptocurrencies haven’t seen the same level of recovery.
Economic Context and Market Sentiment
The current price behavior comes amid continuing concerns about the US economic outlook. Recent data showed that the US economy unexpectedly shrank in the first quarter of 2025.
Trade tensions also remain a factor in market sentiment. President Trump has postponed steep reciprocal tariffs against major US trading partners by 90 days.
Despite this postponement, the US has entered into a renewed trade war with China. This situation continues to dampen the global economic outlook.
These economic factors are important because cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are largely speculative in nature. They tend to move more on overall market sentiment than on specific fundamentals.
If sentiment toward the US economy worsens in the coming weeks, this trend could put downward pressure on crypto prices.
Historical Patterns and Future Projections
A unique Bitcoin price model shows an interesting historical pattern. According to data from 21st Capital, Bitcoin’s price has increased sixfold each time its age (as a network) has increased by 40%.
Great chart by Sina.
An absolute must-follow account, easily one of the highest signal-to-noise accounts on X. https://t.co/kivMTntfZC
— PlanC (@TheRealPlanC) April 30, 2025
The study plots Bitcoin’s price on a logarithmic graph, showing a linear relationship that reflects long-term growth driven by network dynamics.
This pattern is believed to be related to Bitcoin’s limited supply. As the network matures, the price tends to grow in a somewhat predictable manner.
Based on this model, projections suggest Bitcoin could reach $351,046 in 2025. This would represent a 5.2x increase from the $68,000 peak seen in 2021.
However, the model has shown some inconsistencies. It underestimated early growth until 2017 and has overestimated prices in recent years.
Despite these irregularities, the model has shown resilience through various market conditions. It has captured Bitcoin’s long-term upward trend despite regulatory uncertainty, market volatility, and macroeconomic pressures.
Another analysis has identified $84,000 as a key support level for Bitcoin in the current market. This level is seen as the point of control where the heaviest trading volume has occurred.
#Bitcoin $125,000 Target Loading 🔥#BTC bounced off the orange line of the Golden Ratio Multiplier and is now aiming for the blue line, currently at $125,000 📈 pic.twitter.com/5jhqp4w5Vn
— Titan of Crypto (@Washigorira) April 29, 2025
If this support holds, some analysts predict an accelerated price movement into the summer months.
Other cryptocurrency prices have been largely rangebound on Thursday after strong gains in April. Ethereum rose 0.1% to $1,808.30, while XRP fell 1.7%. Solana and Cardano moved within a 1% range.
Among meme tokens, TRUMP retained most of its over 50% surge from late April, while Dogecoin declined by 0.4%.
