TLDR
- US CPI rose to 3.8% year-on-year in April, the highest since 2023
- Energy prices, driven by the US-Iran war, accounted for over 40% of the monthly increase
- Bitcoin held near $80,000 but struggled to break resistance at $82,000–$82,600
- The 200-day SMA near $82,600 remains a key resistance level for bulls
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows and the Coinbase Premium Index stayed negative
Bitcoin held near $80,000 on Tuesday after the April US Consumer Price Index came in at 3.8% year-on-year. That is the highest reading since May 2023.
The monthly increase was 0.6%, matching forecasts. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.4% monthly and 2.8% annually.
BREAKING: April CPI inflation rises to 3.8%, its highest level since May 2023.
Core CPI inflation also rose to 2.8%, above expectations of 2.7%.
We are now experiencing post-pandemic inflation levels amid surging oil prices.
Odds of Fed rate HIKES are surging.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 12, 2026
Energy costs led the charge. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said energy prices rose 3.8% in April, making up more than 40% of the total monthly increase. Over 12 months, energy is up nearly 18%.
The ongoing US-Iran war and the squeeze on oil supply are driving those energy costs higher.
Analyst Daan Crypto Trades posted on X that Bitcoin is “still fighting the Daily 200MA/EMA and November lows,” calling it “the level to break for the bulls to see further upside into the mid/high $80Ks.”
$BTC Still fighting the Daily 200MA/EMA and November lows.
This is the level to break for the bulls to see further upside into the mid/high $80Ks. pic.twitter.com/IpaTQHx5No
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) May 12, 2026
Bitcoin Stuck Between $80K Support and $82K Resistance
Bitcoin traded around $80,681 during the session, with an intraday low near $80,415. Sellers pushed price back each time it approached $82,000.
Trading resource Material Indicators identified the 200-day SMA near $82,600 as a hard resistance zone. It noted bulls appear to be trying to build support at $80,700 for another attempt at that level.
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe flagged the 21-day SMA at $78,800 as a key level. He said $76,000 is a support zone he does not want to see broken, warning that a breach there could send price “substantially lower.”
The daily update on #Bitcoin.
Essentially, there's still no change of momentum and trend.
Clearly, the markets are heading upwards for more tests there.
The 21-MA is a crucial level to look at.
The $76K area is a crucial support zone that I fancy not to be breached, if that… pic.twitter.com/3Lof2VeWCk— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) May 12, 2026
The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index stayed negative in recent sessions. That typically signals weaker US spot demand compared to offshore exchanges.
ETF Outflows and Fed Uncertainty Add Pressure
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows in recent sessions, reducing short-term buying support.
Bond yields rose after the CPI print, and stock futures weakened as traders adjusted rate expectations. The Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target remains well below the current 3.8% reading.
The CME FedWatch Tool showed markets expect rates to stay unchanged through 2026 and into next year. Rate hike odds, however, have been rising according to The Kobeissi Letter.
Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve cleared a key Senate hurdle this week, adding another layer of uncertainty for markets.
Bitcoin’s next move depends on whether buyers can hold $80,000. A daily close above $82,000 would ease short-term selling pressure.
