TLDR
- Bitcoin recovered above $80,000 after dipping to $74,500, showing renewed buyer strength
- U.S.-China trade tensions impacted crypto markets with both nations imposing steep tariffs
- Options worth $2.26 billion expired on April 11, with a balanced mix of bearish and bullish positions
- Whale activity increased with 48,575 BTC ($3.6 billion) flowing into accumulation addresses
- Traders remain divided between expecting further decline or price recovery to $85,000-$100,000
Bitcoin has faced a turbulent week of price action, swinging between sharp drops and rebounds as global markets react to escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China. After falling to around $74,000, the cryptocurrency has recovered to hover near the $80,000 mark.
The price movements come amid President Trump’s recent trade policy announcements. While he postponed planned tariffs for 90 days for most trading partners, China was excluded from this extension. Instead, Trump hiked tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, which prompted China to retaliate with 84% tariffs on U.S. imports.
These trade tensions have created uncertainty in financial markets worldwide. Bitcoin has largely moved in lockstep with U.S. stocks, particularly the Nasdaq, raising questions about its effectiveness as a safe haven asset during economic turbulence.
Despite the market volatility, some positive signs have emerged for Bitcoin enthusiasts. Data from Santiment indicates that the number of Bitcoin “sharks” (holders of over 10 BTC) increased, with more than 132 new wallets appearing in a 24-hour period.
Bitcoin $BTC
The more a trendline is tested, the weaker it becomes
Not ruling out another sweep of the lows before a potential breakout pic.twitter.com/77ohIQ3MOT
— Trader Edge (@Pro_Trader_Edge) April 11, 2025
Whale Activity Signals Confidence
More telling has been the movement of Bitcoin by major holders. CryptoQuant data revealed a massive transfer of approximately 48,575 BTC, worth around $3.6 billion, flowing into accumulation addresses. This represents the largest such movement since 2022 and may signal growing confidence among wealthy investors.
This accumulation activity suggests that despite short-term price volatility, larger investors may be taking a longer-term bullish stance on Bitcoin’s prospects. The quick recovery back above the $80,000 range appears to have revived confidence that had been shaken when prices fell below this threshold for the second consecutive time.
The recent price action has been closely watched by technical analysts. The weekly price charts show Bitcoin approaching what many consider a decisive phase that could determine its medium-term direction.
Some technical indicators present mixed signals. The Ichimoku cloud is approaching a bearish crossover, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), having dropped below average, shows signs of a potential bullish divergence. Many analysts suggest that maintaining levels above $81,500 will be crucial for continuing the bullish trend.
BTC Price
Options Expiry Adds Market Pressure
Adding to the market dynamics, April 11 saw the expiration of roughly 28,000 Bitcoin options contracts with a total value of approximately $2.26 billion. The put/call ratio stood at 0.88, indicating a relatively balanced mix of bearish and bullish positions among traders.
These options had a “max pain” point of $81,500 – the price level at which the most contracts would expire worthless. Interestingly, open interest remained high at both the $70,000 and $100,000 strike prices, reflecting the divided sentiment among market participants.
Some traders expect further price declines, while others anticipate a recovery that could push Bitcoin toward the $100,000 mark. This split in market sentiment underscores the uncertainty created by recent macroeconomic developments.
11 Apr Options Delivery Data
28,000 BTC options expired with a Put Call Ratio of 0.88, a maximum pain point of $81,500 and a notional value of $2.26 billion.
184,000 ETH options expired with a Put Call Ratio of 0.92, a max pain of $1,700 and a notional value of $280 million.… pic.twitter.com/URjpOAEkFm— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) April 11, 2025
Alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum also saw the expiration of about 184,000 options contracts valued at roughly $280 million. Ethereum’s implied volatility remains elevated compared to Bitcoin, with ETH holding near 80% for short to mid-term contracts while BTC’s has dropped closer to 50%.
The broader cryptocurrency market has felt the pressure of these developments. Total market capitalization dropped by 2.9% to $2.664 trillion in a 24-hour period. Bitcoin remains approximately 26% below its all-time high set earlier this year.
Market watchers noted unusual trading behavior ahead of recent policy announcements. Data provider Greeks Live reported several large purchases in the $75,000 to $77,500 range just before tariff news broke, leading some to question whether certain participants had advance knowledge of the announcements.
Price Outlook Remains Uncertain
Looking ahead, traders are closely monitoring key price levels. The $85,000 mark is viewed as a short-term target, while $100,000 continues to serve as longer-term resistance. Despite recent gains, skepticism persists over whether the current momentum can sustain through the coming weeks.
Bitcoin’s price prediction for the near future remains cautiously bullish as long as it sustains above $81,500. However, the cryptocurrency market continues to be affected by lower sentiment and liquidity issues that impact price stability.
