TLDR
- Bitcoin price currently trading between $93,500-$95,000 after reaching nearly $98,000 on Friday
- U.S.-China trade negotiations are creating market uncertainty with mixed signals
- Strong U.S. jobs report and rising Treasury yields prompted weekend price pullback
- Bitcoin faces technical resistance in the $95,000-$98,000 range
- Traders appear cautious despite potential for breakout above $100,000 if resistance is overcome
Bitcoin opened the trading week hovering just above $94,000 as investors closely monitor developments in U.S.-China trade talks. The leading cryptocurrency has retreated from Friday’s peak near $98,000, reflecting broader market caution amid mixed economic signals.
The price action shows Bitcoin trading in a tight range between $93,500 and $95,000, with technical analysts pointing to key resistance levels that must be overcome for further upward momentum.
Market liquidity appears thinner than usual with major Asian markets closed on Monday. Hong Kong, mainland China, Japan, and Korea all observed holidays, contributing to reduced trading volumes.
Macroeconomic factors are playing a central role in Bitcoin’s current price movements. Over the weekend, China’s Commerce Ministry announced it was reviewing a U.S. proposal to resume trade negotiations, while President Trump hinted that Beijing “wanted to do a deal.”
However, prediction markets remain skeptical about near-term breakthroughs. Polymarket data shows bettors giving only a 21% chance of a trade deal by June, and a 47% probability that the White House will lower tariffs by the end of May.
BTC Price
Technical Analysis Points to Key Levels
The cryptocurrency is encountering resistance as it tests important technical and on-chain levels. According to Glassnode research, Bitcoin is struggling to break through the $93,000-$95,000 range.
This price zone aligns with both the short-term holder cost basis and the 111-day moving average, creating a crucial battleground for market momentum.
Technical indicators show a bearish trend line forming with resistance near $95,250 on the hourly chart. The MACD appears to be losing momentum in the bearish zone, while the RSI remains below the 50 level.
Analysts note that if Bitcoin can overcome resistance around $95,000-$98,000, it could enter a relatively clear path toward new price discovery, possibly reaching a new all-time high above $100,000.
On the downside, immediate support exists at $94,000, with major support levels at $93,500 and $93,200. A break below these levels could send prices toward $92,500 or even $91,200 in the near term.
Bitcoin $BTC Update:
📉 $95K looks like a good level of support on the lower timeframes
⚠️ Losing that level could see a drop to the range lows at $92 – $93K pic.twitter.com/sUeUIx2Dcp
— Trader Edge (@Pro_Trader_Edge) May 4, 2025
Economic Data Weighs on Risk Assets
Friday’s strong U.S. jobs report lifted Treasury yields, sparking concerns that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts. Non-farm payrolls grew by 177,000 in April, slightly above expectations, while unemployment ticked higher to 4.2%.
Markets initially reacted positively, with Bitcoin testing $98,000 late Friday as risk assets rallied. But optimism faded as bond yields climbed, with the U.S. 10-year yield rising above 4.3% after the data.
This reinforced the idea that borrowing costs may stay elevated longer than previously expected, putting pressure on Bitcoin, which has increasingly traded in lockstep with equities and other macro-sensitive assets.
Oil prices also fell sharply after OPEC+ announced it would accelerate its phased return of production hikes. The group agreed to add 411,000 barrels per day to global supply in June, undercutting support for crude prices.
Currency markets have shown interesting movements, with the Chinese yuan strengthening to a six-month high near ¥7.19. Regional currencies also rallied, with the New Taiwan Dollar surging to a two-year high around NT$29.6 per U.S. dollar.
The cryptocurrency market overall appears to be in a holding pattern. The CoinDesk 20, which measures the performance of major digital assets, was down 1.5%, trading below 2,700 points.
Market observers note that many investors may be overly cautious about risk assets due to the current U.S. macroeconomic climate, despite Bitcoin’s trend breaking away from its correlation with U.S. equities.
The next major catalyst for Bitcoin price action may come on Wednesday with the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.
🚨 The Week Ahead: Fed Rate Decision & Big Earnings
📊 Fed rate decision Wednesday – expected to hold at 4.25% – 4.5% despite Trump pressure
💼 Big earnings: Palantir, AMD, Ford, Disney & Uber
📈 S&P 500 $SPY rallying after tariff pressure eases
👀 Markets still pricing 3…
— Trader Edge (@Pro_Trader_Edge) May 4, 2025
Traders are watching to see whether Chair Powell will push back against rate cut requests from the president or take a more balanced approach amid conflicting economic signals.
