TLDR
- Cardano price has recovered above $0.70, forming a Golden Cross pattern on charts
- Large holders (whales) now control 35.5% of ADA supply, up from 33% in January
- Probability of an ADA ETF approval jumped to 51% following SEC leadership changes
- Technical indicators show ADA testing the 200-day EMA, with potential targets at $0.88-$0.94
- ADA has gained over 11% in the past week, reversing its March downtrend
Cardano (ADA) has shown strong recovery signs in recent days, climbing above the $0.70 mark for the first time since March. The cryptocurrency has gained more than 11% over the past week, recovering from its previous downtrend and giving traders renewed hope for a potential rally toward the $1 level.
The recent price action has been supported by increased trading volume, which rose by 33% in the past 24 hours to reach $723 million. This higher volume indicates growing buyer interest as ADA attempts to overcome resistance barriers between $0.7150 and $0.7200.
Technical analysis shows that ADA has formed a Golden Cross pattern on the 4-hour chart, strengthening its bullish outlook. After this crossover, the price rose sharply and began trading above the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which has since become support.
According to crypto analyst Trader Edge, Cardano price is approaching a major test at $0.75. A breakout above this level could open the way for a move upwards.
Cardano $ADA approaching the HUGE resistance level at $0.75
It was denied the last 5 times, 6th time lucky?? pic.twitter.com/ONnFFhDHUL
— Trader Edge (@Pro_Trader_Edge) April 29, 2025
ADA is now testing the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a key technical indicator. Breaking above this level could accelerate the rally toward higher targets.
Whale Accumulation Drives Confidence
Data from Santiment shows that large Cardano holders have been increasing their positions. Wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA now control 35.5% of the total supply, up from 33% in January.
This sustained accumulation by whales often suggests that large investors expect future price appreciation. Wallets with between 1 million and 10 million ADA have also grown to account for 15.83% of the supply.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) currently sits at 55.33, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish sentiment. Since the MFI is neither overbought nor oversold, there’s potential for rising prices if the bullish undertone persists.
On a larger timeframe, Cardano price is moving within a falling channel formed in the first half of 2025. The price has reversed from the channel bottom and is currently moving toward the midway point and the upper edge of the channel.
ADA Price
ETF Speculation Boosts Outlook
Speculation about a potential spot ADA ETF has gained momentum following recent changes in SEC leadership. The appointment of Paul Atkins as the new chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission has increased expectations for ETF approvals.
Polymarket data shows the probability of an ADA ETF being approved this year has jumped to 51%. This development comes as the SEC reportedly considers allowing ETFs to offer staking features, which would make Cardano ETFs more attractive by enabling investors to generate monthly returns.
ADA Futures open interest increased by 1.5% intraday, reaching $796.15 million. The derivatives volume for the coin saw a 22.5% increase to $1.56 billion.
From a technical perspective, ADA has broken out of a falling wedge pattern, which is typically bullish. The Parabolic Stop And Reverse (SAR) indicator shows dots positioned below the price, indicating solid support for continued upward movement.
Cardano has also breached the 0.618 Fibonacci level, further confirming strong bullish momentum. If ADA maintains its current strength, it could rally toward $0.94, unless sellers regain control.
The cryptocurrency faces resistance around $0.70 to $0.72, with support at the lower border of the channel between $0.55 and $0.57. If resistance levels hold, Cardano could revisit lower support before attempting another breakout.
Most recent data shows ADA trading around $0.70, having recovered from its recent low of $0.6500. As Bitcoin approaches the $100,000 mark, analysts suggest Cardano could potentially surge by 40% if this key psychological level is breached.
