TLDR
- Bloomberg analysts raise Cardano ETF approval odds to 90% by 2025
- ADA trades around $0.50-$0.56 despite ETF optimism and institutional attention
- Technical indicators show bearish trend with price below Ichimoku cloud and key resistance levels
- First weekly green candle after six red weeks suggests potential momentum shift
- Key resistance at $0.70 must break for bullish confirmation, with $0.48-$0.50 acting as critical support
Cardano faces a mixed outlook as institutional optimism clashes with technical challenges. Bloomberg analysts now estimate a 90% probability that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will approve a spot Cardano ETF by 2025.
🚀CARDANO ETF APPROVAL ODDS HIT 90%!
📈Bloomberg analysts now assign a 90% chance for a #Cardano ($ADA) spot ETF approval by the SEC in 2025.
Big money could soon find its way into #ADA🔥 pic.twitter.com/I4iHrA6s8M
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) July 1, 2025
This sharp increase in approval odds has drawn renewed attention to ADA. The potential ETF would allow institutional capital to enter the Cardano ecosystem more easily.
If approved, Cardano would join Bitcoin and Ethereum as cryptocurrencies with approved spot ETFs. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen volume increases following their ETF approvals.
The ETF development comes as Cardano trades near critical technical levels. ADA closed Monday around $0.5617, down over 1.8% on the day.
Since mid-May, the asset has posted lower highs and lower lows. This pattern confirms a persistent bearish structure on the charts.
Technical analysis shows ADA trading beneath its Ichimoku cloud. This zone often acts as resistance for price movements.
The price also holds near the lower Bollinger Band. This position reflects weak buying pressure and shrinking volatility.
Technical Indicators Show Gradual Improvement
Despite the bearish trend, some momentum indicators hint at potential changes. The MACD histogram has turned slightly positive, suggesting a possible crossover formation.
However, both MACD and signal lines remain below zero. This keeps overall sentiment cautious among analysts.
The Relative Strength Index sits around 37. This shows mild bearish momentum but not an extreme sell-off condition.
RSI has started a gradual curve upward. However, no confirmed reversal pattern has emerged yet.
Key Levels Define Price Action
A move above $0.59 to $0.60 could trigger renewed bullish interest. This zone includes the mid-Bollinger Band and Ichimoku baseline.
These levels serve as key resistance points. A breakout with increased volume would be needed to confirm any trend shift.
After six consecutive red weekly candles, Cardano finally posted a green close. This represents a minor but welcome shift in market tone.
The token currently tests a key horizontal level near $0.48. This level has held as support multiple times throughout 2023 and into 2024.
Analyst CryptoSmith notes the current structure resembles the setup that led to a 240% rally in late 2023. ADA now trades below long-standing descending resistance.
$ADA approaching critical trendline resistance.
Previous breakout = +240%
Similar structure forming now — #breakout could target $2.60 again.
Stack accordingly. pic.twitter.com/KfUFGwwDS1
— Smith (@CryptoSmith0x) June 25, 2025
If ADA breaks above this structure, the next key zones to watch are $0.60 and $0.70. Clearing those levels could re-ignite momentum towards higher targets.
Crypto analyst Jesse Peralta points out that Cardano has held its range support for 77 days. The base around the $0.50 level has absorbed multiple tests.
Clean touches of this zone followed by rebounds suggest buyers are stepping in consistently. The $0.50 level remains the critical must-hold line for bulls.
Despite recent price weakness, Cardano maintains sixth place in social dominance rankings. ADA holds 2.5% of total attention across tracked platforms.
