TLDR
- ASML raised its 2026 revenue forecast to €43–€45 billion, up from €36–€40 billion
- Q2 net sales hit €9.3 billion, beating guidance, with gross margin of 54%
- Stock is up ~69% year-to-date, approaching a $700 billion market cap
- ASML plans a 30% increase in EUV production capacity for 2027
- Wall Street analysts unanimously rate ASML a Strong Buy with an average target of $2,421
ASML Holding just delivered one of the most convincing arguments yet that the AI infrastructure buildout is nowhere near done.
The Dutch chipmaking equipment maker raised its 2026 revenue forecast for the second time this year, now targeting €43–€45 billion — up from €36–€40 billion issued in April. That’s roughly 35% growth over 2025’s €32.7 billion.
The stock has surged about 69% year-to-date, trading around $1,748 per ADR, pushing the company toward a $700 billion market cap. Analysts at Barclays, Susquehanna, and Bernstein now have 12-month price targets above $2,600 — the rough threshold for a $1 trillion valuation.
Q2 results, reported July 15, were the catalyst. Net sales reached €9.326 billion, a 21.2% jump from a year earlier and well above ASML’s own guidance of €8.4–€9.0 billion. Net profit came in at €2.918 billion. Earnings per ADR hit $8.68, beating the $7.92 consensus by about 9.6%.
Order intake was described by CEO Christophe Fouquet as “extremely strong,” driven by chipmakers accelerating capacity plans to meet AI demand for advanced logic and memory chips.
Capacity Is Now the Constraint
ASML holds a monopoly on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines — the equipment required to manufacture the world’s most advanced chips. It plans to increase Low-NA EUV production from around 65 units in 2026 to 78–80 systems in 2027, a 30% expansion. That additional output is already nearly fully allocated.
Strong demand visibility for 2028 has management exploring another 30% capacity increase. Deep ultraviolet immersion capacity, currently around 130 units annually, is being scaled similarly.
Memory is a key growth driver. ASML projects system revenue in the memory segment will grow more than 75% this year as DRAM makers invest in high-bandwidth memory production. Intel has also begun deploying ASML’s newer High-NA EUV tools on specific chip layers.
Q3 guidance calls for revenue of €11–€12 billion with gross margins of 55–57%, implying sequential growth of more than 20%.
The Trillion-Dollar Question
Wall Street is unanimously bullish. ASML carries eight Buy ratings, zero Hold or Sell, with an average price target of $2,421 — implying about 38.5% upside from current levels.
“I think it has a really good chance of being the first company in Europe to hit the trillion mark,” said Carolyn Bell of Stonehage Fleming, where ASML makes up about 8% of the Global Best Ideas portfolio.
Risks remain. The proposed U.S. MATCH Act could restrict ASML’s ability to sell and service equipment in China, which is expected to account for 20% of sales in 2026. Any slowdown in hyperscaler data center spending from Google, Amazon, or others would also flow through to ASML’s order book.
ASML also announced a one-time stock award of €20,000 to each of its roughly 45,000 employees, vesting in early 2030.
The company currently trades at about 40 times its 2026 consensus earnings estimate of $43.34 per ADR.
Stop guessing and start investing with confidence. KnockoutStocks gives you the AI insights, market intelligence, and stock research you need to spot opportunities, cut through the noise, and make smarter investment decisions — all in one powerful platform.
Sign up today and get 50% OFF full access to our premium stock picks.
Simply use coupon code SPECIAL50 at checkout to claim your exclusive discount.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
