TLDR
- Dogecoin price experienced a decline after failing to clear the $0.18 resistance level
- Some analysts believe DOGE may have reached a bottom similar to October 2024 before its 500% rally
- A 100 million DOGE whale transfer worth $17.5 million occurred with increased exchange outflows
- Realized cap shrinking while market cap grows indicates recent gains may be driven by speculation
- Technical indicators show DOGE needs to break above $0.1740-$0.1780 range to resume upward trend
Dogecoin has faced renewed pressure in recent days after a period of upward movement in April. The popular meme cryptocurrency saw its price retreat after failing to break through key resistance levels, leaving traders wondering if this is a temporary setback or the start of a more extended correction.
The price movement shows DOGE currently trades below the $0.1750 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average.
A bearish trend line has formed with resistance at $0.1725 on the hourly chart.
This downturn follows a month of positive momentum in April, pushing investor sentiment back into fear territory.
The decline coincides with Bitcoin’s rejection from the $97.9k level, which dropped 2.4% in under two days.
DOGE trading volume decreased by 33.5% in 24 hours, which could be attributed to weekend market conditions when activity typically slows.
DOGE Price
Signs of Potential Recovery
Some crypto analysts see reasons for optimism despite the recent price action.
Analyst Astronomer suggests the Dogecoin price might have bottomed after its rejection from $0.18.
The analyst draws parallels to market conditions in October 2024, before DOGE rallied approximately 500% to reach $0.5.
Technical charts show a potential bullish divergence forming on the relative strength index (RSI).
A break above the $0.206 level would be considered positive for the price action going forward.
Key resistance levels to watch include $0.1740, $0.1780, $0.1850, and eventually $0.200.
Another altcoin that bottomed IMO (Early call), I'm long
Alright $DOGE only moved slightly off the low, so there still is a 6R+ trade to be scored if it were to go to the highs.
Regardless, I called the $BTC bottom early, and am willing to do the same with one of my… https://t.co/CH2icaIfnn pic.twitter.com/4XgF9AWyq9
— Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) May 4, 2025
Whale Activity and Market Sentiment
Recent on-chain data reveals interesting whale behavior that could impact DOGE’s price trajectory.
A 100 million DOGE transfer worth approximately $17.5 million has sparked interest in the market.
This whale activity coincides with increased exchange outflows, often considered a bullish sign as it represents tokens being moved to private wallets for holding rather than selling.
Wallets holding between 1 million-10 million and 100 million-1 billion DOGE have shown some buying activity since April 8th.
However, other large holder groups, particularly those with 10 million-100 million DOGE, have displayed steady distribution over the past month.
Daily Active Addresses remain at just 3.4% of what they were during the November peak, indicating subdued market interest.
Market Cap Discrepancy Provides Insights
An interesting discrepancy between Dogecoin’s market metrics offers clues about the nature of recent price movements.
Since April 6th, DOGE’s market capitalization has grown from $21 billion to $26.4 billion.
During the same period, the realized cap (which values coins at the price they last moved) shrank from $21.5 billion to $21.3 billion.
This divergence suggests that while the market values DOGE higher, actual on-chain activity doesn’t fully support this valuation.
The gap between market cap and realized cap indicates some of the past month’s gains may be driven by speculative activity rather than fundamental adoption.
Long-term holders appear to be holding steady, as a high level of selling from this group would have caused a deeper decrease in the realized cap.
For DOGE to establish a sustainable rally, increased buying pressure and network activity will need to materialize.
Current price levels show major support at $0.1685 and $0.1650, with $0.1600 serving as a critical floor.
If these levels fail to hold, further declines toward $0.1550 or even $0.1450 could be possible in the near term.
