TLDR
- Brent crude jumped 6.2% to $96.77 and WTI rose 7% to $93.48 after Iran suspended nuclear negotiations
- XOM stock climbed 2.9% to $149.41, snapping a seven-day losing streak
- BP led the majors, up 3.5%; Chevron and Shell both posted gains over 2%
- XOM beat Q1 EPS estimates, reporting $1.16 vs. the $0.98 consensus
- Analyst consensus sits at “Hold” with a price target of $165.55
Oil prices spiked sharply on Monday after Iranian negotiators suspended talks through intermediaries, citing Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon. That geopolitical jolt sent crude markets higher and pulled oil stocks along with it.
Brent crude futures rose 6.2% to $96.77 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate climbed 7% to $93.48. Those are meaningful moves for a single session.
ExxonMobil (XOM) stock was up 2.9% at $149.41 as of late-morning trading, snapping a seven-day losing streak. It’s on pace for its largest single-day gain since May 15, per Dow Jones Market Data. The stock touched an intraday high of $149.59.
Chevron (CVX) added 2.9% to $187.67, its biggest daily move since March 11. BP (BP) led the group with a 3.5% gain to $43.34 ā also its strongest day since March 11. Shell (SHEL) ADRs climbed 2.2% to $85.99. The XLE energy ETF rose 2.3% to $57.56.
It’s worth noting the irony: just last week, oil prices had been sliding on hopes of a U.S.-Iran deal. That optimism is now out the window.
GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan put it plainly: “The coast is anything but clear.” He noted that while pump prices had dropped ā the national average for unleaded fell 19.5 cents over the past week to $4.256 a gallon ā renewed geopolitical risk could quickly reverse that trend.
Fundamentals Hold Up
Despite Monday’s drama, XOM’s underlying numbers are solid. The company reported Q1 EPS of $1.16, beating the $0.98 consensus by $0.18. Revenue came in at $83.16 billion, ahead of the $81.13 billion estimate ā up 2.4% year-over-year.
ExxonMobil also declared a quarterly dividend of $1.03 per share, payable June 10. That works out to a 2.8% annualized yield.
Analysts are broadly constructive but not rushing to upgrade. Barclays raised its price target to $182 with an Overweight rating on May 26. Scotiabank lifted its target to $163 with a Sector Outperform. Mizuho raised its 2026 and 2027 oil price outlooks and bumped its XOM target higher as well.
The consensus rating across 21 analysts sits at “Hold” with a price target of $165.55 ā about 10.8% above Monday’s trading levels.
Institutional Interest Remains Steady
Peapack Gladstone Financial trimmed its XOM position by 1.7% in Q4, but still holds 708,829 shares valued at roughly $85.3 million ā making it the firm’s 17th-largest holding.
Institutional investors own 61.8% of XOM overall. Insider activity has been modest; VP Darrin L. Talley sold 1,080 shares in March at $155.50 apiece.
XOM opened Monday at $145.42. The stock has a 52-week range of $101.18 to $176.41 and a market cap of $602.75 billion.
Since Israel and the U.S. launched their first attacks on Iran on Feb. 28, XOM is actually down 2.2% ā the weakest performer among the major oil names in that stretch. BP leads with an 11.5% gain over the same period.
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