TLDR
- Goldman Sachs targets S&P 500 at 7,600, a 7% rise from current levels
- S&P 500 has already rallied 12% since March 30, its sharpest rise since April 2020
- Goldman recommends growth stocks like Broadcom, Nvidia, and Amazon
- Gasoline prices are up nearly 40% since the Iran conflict began
- US consumer confidence hit a record low of 47.6, below 2008 financial crisis levels
Goldman strategist Ben Snider says the S&P 500 will rise 7% from current levels to close the year at 7,600. He points to continued earnings growth as the main driver.
The S&P 500 has already rallied 12% since March 30. That is its sharpest rise since April 2020 and, before that, March 2009.
Snider noted that in 2009, 2020, and 2025, stock markets bounced back before the situation fully cleared up. He says this pattern is playing out again now.
Goldman is telling investors to lean into growth stocks that have pulled back in price. Snider specifically mentioned companies tied to power infrastructure and those with limited risk from AI disruption.
Stocks Goldman recommends include Broadcom, Nvidia, AMD, Amazon, Meta, and Micron. These are all seen as having strong earnings outlooks independent of broader economic growth.
Markets have largely shaken off concerns about $4-a-gallon gasoline and higher oil prices. Analysts say the main fear is oil spiking above $150 a barrel, which has not happened yet.
Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye said the market is in buy-on-weakness mode. He added that an oil spike to $150–$200 a barrel would be the real danger signal to watch.
Consumer Confidence Hits Record Low
At the same time, Goldman is warning that US consumers are under pressure. Gasoline prices have climbed nearly 40% since the conflict with Iran began.
Goldman strategist Ronnie Walker says that rise represents a roughly $140 billion annualized hit to household incomes. Lower-income households are hit hardest, spending about four times more on gas as a share of income than the top earners.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 47.6 this month. That is an 11% fall from March and the lowest reading in the survey’s 74-year history, falling below 2008 financial crisis levels.
Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.8%, the largest one-month jump in a year.
Some Consumer Brands Holding Up
Not every consumer company is seeing weakness yet. PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta said lower-priced Frito-Lay snacks are selling well, with volume improving in the first quarter.
Ulta Beauty CEO Kecia Steelman said shoppers are not cutting back on cosmetics or visiting stores less. She said 95% of sales run through the loyalty program, and those customers say they will not compromise on self-care routines.
Shares of McDonald’s have not joined the broader rally and are down 1% over the past month. Dollar General and Dollar Tree are each up just 1% in the same period.
March retail sales data, due Tuesday, is expected to show how consumers responded to rising energy costs last month.
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