TLDR
- Intel’s server CPU market share dropped 370 basis points to 54.9% in Q1 2026, while AMD and Arm both gained ground.
- Total server CPU shipments rose 19% year-over-year, but Intel was the loser in the share battle.
- Intel stock was down 3.4% at $116.26 in premarket trading Thursday, its third straight day of losses.
- An Intel EVP sold over 40,000 shares worth ~$4 million in early May, cutting her position by 27.7%.
- UBS projects the server CPU market will grow from $30 billion in 2025 to $170 billion by 2030, with Arm taking 40–45% of units.
Intel stock was trading down 3.4% at $116.26 in premarket Thursday, putting it on track for a third straight day of losses after a stunning run that has seen the stock more than triple in 2026 alone.
The selloff follows a UBS note flagging that Intel lost server CPU market share in Q1 2026. On a unit basis, Intel’s share dropped around 370 basis points to 54.9%. AMD picked up 230 basis points, reaching 27.4%, and Arm gained 140 basis points to 17.7%.
UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri put it plainly: “Arm and AMD units outgrew and continued to gain share at the expense of Intel.”
The irony is that the overall pie got bigger. Total server CPU shipments climbed 19% in Q1 versus the same period last year. Intel just didn’t grow as fast as its rivals.
A Massive Market — But Arm Is the Projected Winner
UBS sees the total server CPU market expanding from roughly $30 billion in 2025 to $170 billion by 2030, driven by AI workload demand. That’s a lot of revenue to split.
But Arcuri expects Arm’s instruction set to “capture a disproportionate segment of this growth,” reaching around 40–45% of total units by 2030. Intel and AMD are projected to split the rest roughly equally.
Arm stock was also down 2.7% in premarket Thursday, while AMD slipped 1.5%.
Insider Selling and Institutional Moves
Away from the market share data, there’s been some notable activity inside Intel itself. EVP April Miller Boise sold 40,256 shares on May 1st at an average price of $99.53, totaling around $4 million. That reduced her position by 27.7%, leaving her with 105,077 shares.
On the institutional side, the picture is mixed. Money Concepts Capital Corp trimmed its Intel position by 28% in Q4, while Trek Financial added aggressively — growing its stake by over 400%.
Intel last reported earnings on April 23rd. The company posted EPS of $0.29 for the quarter, well ahead of the $0.01 consensus estimate. Revenue came in at $13.58 billion, beating expectations of $12.32 billion and up 7.4% year-over-year.
For Q2 2026, Intel has guided for EPS of $0.20.
INTC opened Thursday at $120.29. The stock has a 52-week range of $18.97 to $132.75. Its 50-day moving average sits at $64.79, giving some context to just how fast this year’s rally has been.
Intel was a Barron’s stock pick last month when it was trading around $64. The stock has since roughly doubled from that level.
The average analyst rating on Intel remains “Hold” with a consensus price target of $77.38 — well below where the stock is currently trading.
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