TLDR
- MP Materials posted Q2 revenue of $108.49 million, up 89% year over year, beating analyst estimates of $96.89 million
- The company shifted away from selling raw concentrate to higher-value NdPr oxide and metal, with that revenue jumping from $25 million to $95 million
- MP received a $17.6 million Pentagon payment after NdPr market prices fell below the government’s $110/kg price floor
- Institutional ownership sits at 52.55%, with Odyssean LLC raising its position by 236.7% in Q2
- Wall Street holds a consensus “Buy” rating with an average price target of $78.21; the stock currently trades around $60.25
MP Materials (MP) stock opened at $60.25 on Wednesday, sitting roughly 45% below its 52-week high of $100.25, though its underlying business has been moving in the right direction.
The company reported Q2 2026 revenue of $108.49 million, up 89% year over year and ahead of the $96.89 million analyst consensus. Adjusted EBITDA swung from a $12.5 million loss to a positive $28.5 million in the same period.
EPS came in at -$0.01 for the quarter, matching analyst estimates. That compares to -$0.13 EPS in the same quarter last year.
A big part of the revenue story is the product mix shift. MP has moved away from selling raw rare-earth concentrate, which it previously shipped to Chinese processors. It now sells separated NdPr oxide and metal, a more refined and higher-value product.
In Q2 2025, MP pulled in about $25 million from NdPr oxide and metal, alongside $12 million from concentrate. This past quarter, concentrate revenue was zero, while oxide and metal revenue hit $95 million.
The trade war between the U.S. and China accelerated this shift. MP stopped selling concentrate starting last April, bringing the processing in-house at its Mountain Pass facility in California.
Pentagon Price Floor Kicks In
MP also received $17.6 million in Pentagon-related price-protection income during Q2. The Department of Defense had agreed to a price floor of $110 per kilogram for MP’s NdPr. When market prices dropped below that level, the government made up the difference.
That payment was included in the quarter’s results and reflects the terms of the public-private partnership announced last July.
Institutional Investors Add Positions
On the investor side, Odyssean LLC raised its MP Materials position by 236.7% in Q2, bringing its holdings to 28,273 shares valued at roughly $1.58 million.
Other firms also moved in. Oak Thistle LLC opened a new position worth about $1.54 million. Amundi boosted its stake by 260.2% in Q1, now holding 385,001 shares worth $18.58 million. Institutional investors now own 52.55% of the stock.
On the insider front, COO Michael Rosenthal bought 10,000 shares at $54.30 each in June, adding $543,000 to his position. CEO James Litinsky sold 185,167 shares at an average of $69.14 in early June, a 1.57% reduction in his stake.
Analyst Targets and Ratings
Morgan Stanley reaffirmed an “overweight” rating on August 19. Citigroup kept a “positive” rating in July. JPMorgan cut its price target from $75 to $60, maintaining “overweight.” Barclays trimmed its target from $69 to $65, also keeping “overweight.”
The consensus across 16 analysts stands at “Buy,” with an average price target of $78.21. One analyst rates the stock “Sell.”
Analysts forecast MP will post -$0.07 EPS for the full year. The stock carries a market cap of $10.73 billion and a beta of 1.88.
MP’s next milestone is its second magnet factory, known as 10X, which is targeted for commissioning in 2028.
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