TLDR
- Jamie Dimon warned that higher interest rates could cause a recession, calling it “a very possible scenario”
- The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.68% this week, its highest since January 2025
- Traders now price a 57% chance of a Fed rate hike in 2026, up from 0% a month ago
- JPMorgan is using AI for risk, fraud, marketing, and design functions
- Dimon says JPMorgan will hire more AI talent and fewer bankers in certain categories
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon spoke to Bloomberg at the bank’s Global China Summit in Shanghai this week. He warned that rising interest rates could push the economy into a recession.
Jamie Dimon says interest rates may climb much higher from current levels, a warning to bond investors at a time when yields have touched multi-year highs https://t.co/STPQHZQ4RY
— Bloomberg (@business) May 21, 2026
“That could put stress in the system and easily it could cause a recession type thing,” Dimon said. He called a recession “a very possible scenario.”
Dimon also said bond yields could climb much higher. “Interest rates could be much higher than they are today,” he told Bloomberg Television on Thursday.
Bond Yields Hit Multi-Year Highs
The 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.68% on Tuesday, its highest point since January 2025. The 30-year yield climbed to 5.18%, a level not seen since July 2007.
By Thursday, the 10-year yield was sitting at around 4.61% and the 30-year at 5.14%. Crude oil prices were rising again on the same day.
Dimon said the old assumption that rates would stay low may be wrong. “The notion that somehow people say they will never go up is the wrong notion,” he said.
He pointed to a possible shift in global savings. “We may have gone from a saving glut to not enough savings,” Dimon added.
Concerns about inflation have been building after consumer and wholesale price data came in hotter than expected last week. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has also been pushing fuel costs higher.
Federal Reserve minutes released Wednesday showed most officials would back rate hikes if inflation stays above the Fed’s target.
Traders on Thursday priced in a 57% chance of at least one rate hike in 2026, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Just a month ago, that probability was 0%.
JPMorgan Bets on AI
Dimon also outlined JPMorgan’s artificial intelligence plans. The bank is already using AI across risk, fraud, marketing, and design functions.
“It’s the tip of the iceberg, it’s moving very quickly,” Dimon said.
He predicted that JPMorgan would bring on more AI talent going forward. At the same time, it would hire fewer bankers in certain categories.
Dimon said the bank was preparing for multiple interest rate outcomes. “Companies like us prepare for higher rates, lower rates,” he said.
The comments show JPMorgan is pushing ahead with AI even as it watches the economic picture closely.
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