TLDR
- Bitcoin is trading near its 200-week moving average, a level historically seen at the end of bear markets
- The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 9, deep in “extreme fear” territory
- CryptoQuant puts a potential structural bottom near $53,600, Bitcoin’s current realized price
- US CPI inflation hit 4.2% annually in May, the highest since early 2023, adding pressure on BTC
- Derivatives markets are showing some buying activity, with BTC futures open interest rising nearly 2% to $45.71 billion
Bitcoin is trading near a level that has only appeared in the deepest parts of past bear markets. On Thursday, BTC changed hands at around $62,150–$62,623, up roughly 2% on the day but still lower on the week.
The coin briefly broke below $60,000 earlier this week — its first time there since 2024.
Blockchain analytics platform Checkonchain shows BTC has fallen close to its 200-week moving average. This places Bitcoin in the bottom 10% of its entire historical valuation range.
Bear market bottoms are a process, not an event.
First, price-sensitive investors capitulate. Then comes the harder phase: months of sideways action that slowly wear down the conviction of those who remain.
In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines the evidence… pic.twitter.com/ReSQFfqi5R
— _Checkonchain (@_checkonchain) June 10, 2026
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 9 out of 100. That is down from 11 last week and 48 just a month ago.
Wu Blockchain shared data from CryptoQuant on social media, highlighting that the analytics firm sees Bitcoin’s potential bottom near $53,600, its current realized price. CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said the realized price is “a level that would confirm a bottom” historically, but stressed this is only a “valuation bottom candidate,” not a confirmed cycle low.
CryptoQuant Sees Bitcoin’s Potential Bottom Near $53,600
CryptoQuant said Bitcoin’s potential bottom may be near $53,600, its current realized price, though research head Julio Moreno stressed this is only a “valuation bottom candidate,” not a confirmed cycle bottom. The firm… pic.twitter.com/2CO0ROpDJ5
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) June 11, 2026
Moreno added that a true recovery requires a “constructive demand recovery, a condition not yet visible in the data.” CryptoQuant’s data shows total demand fell by 652,000 BTC last week, and 30-day ETF demand growth dropped to -74,000 BTC.
ETF Outflows and Macro Pressure
US consumer prices rose 4.2% year-over-year in May, the fastest pace since early 2023. Energy costs tied to the US-Iran conflict pushed headline inflation higher, though core CPI came in softer than expected.
BREAKING: May CPI inflation rises to 4.2%, the highest level since April 2023.
Core CPI inflation also rises to 2.9%, the highest since September 2025.
Inflation in the US is officially back above 4% and more than double the Fed's target.
Odds of Fed rate hikes are rising.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 10, 2026
Yves Renno, Head of Trading at Wirex, noted that Polymarket odds of the US Clarity Act passing in 2026 dropped from 62% to 48% this week. He said the June 16–17 FOMC meeting will be key, with Bitcoin either bouncing toward $68,000–$72,000 or breaking below $60,000 depending on the Fed’s tone.
ETF outflows remain a drag. Record net outflows have pulled institutional money out of Bitcoin products for several consecutive sessions.
On-Chain Signals and Derivatives Activity
Cycle analyst Benjamin Cowen says the four-year cycle remains intact and he expects Bitcoin to likely bottom around October. He highlighted that Bitcoin is currently bouncing from the 200-week moving average, and that the price is trading in the Fibonacci Golden Zone on the weekly chart.
Other analysts have flagged the possibility of a double bottom forming on the daily chart, with large support volumes in the current range.
CoinGlass data shows BTC futures open interest rose nearly 2% in 24 hours to $45.71 billion. CME, Binance, and OKX each saw open interest climb 5%, 2%, and 4% respectively.
Glassnode reported that short-term holders are sitting in losses and realized losses are accelerating, while options markets continue to price in elevated risk.
As of Thursday, BTC was trading at approximately $62,150, with the broader crypto market posting modest gains that have not reversed this week’s losses.
