TLDR
- U.S. viewership on ESPN hit a record 1.3 million for the 2025 season, and Apple TV says streaming is “way up” since taking over broadcast rights.
- Morgan Stanley analyst Sean Diffley has FWONK as his top media and entertainment pick, with a $120 price target, roughly 15% above current levels.
- Guggenheim raised its price target to $124 from $116, keeping a Buy rating, citing sponsorship momentum and Las Vegas profitability.
- 15 of 17 analysts tracked by FactSet have a Buy rating on the stock, with EPS expected to climb nearly 22% in 2027.
- F1 transitioned from a Liberty Media tracking stock to a direct ownership equity structure, simplifying its investment case.
Liberty Formula One (FWONK) stock is trading around $104.84, and Wall Street thinks it has further to run. Most analysts covering the stock say buy it.
Liberty Media Corporation, FWONK
F1 has spent the last decade building something rare: a global sports property that is publicly traded and, according to portfolio managers who own it, still under-monetized.
The business turned a corner when Liberty Media took over in 2017. Before that, from 1950 to roughly 2016, the sport was, in the words of one fund manager, “pretty badly run.” Liberty brought structure, financial discipline, and a long-term commercial strategy.
U.S. Growth Is Real
The U.S. was always F1’s white whale. That is starting to change.
ESPN reported a record 1.3 million average viewers for the 2025 season, with 18 of 21 races showing year-over-year gains. Apple TV, which took over U.S. broadcast rights from ESPN, says streaming viewership is “way up” this season, though it does not release specific numbers.
Races in Miami, Austin, and Las Vegas have helped pull in American fans. Ticket sales for this year’s Las Vegas Grand Prix are running two months ahead of last year’s pace, according to UBS analyst Ryan Gravett, who also noted sponsorship commitments are tracking well above 2025 levels.
The addition of Team Cadillac, the first all-American F1 team, adds another hook for U.S. fans who want someone to root for.
Globally, around 70 million viewers tune in per race weekend. Demand from host cities is strong too, with China and Saudi Arabia competing for additional race dates.
What Analysts Are Saying
Morgan Stanley’s Sean Diffley has FWONK as his top pick across media and entertainment. His price target is $120, about 15% above where the stock currently sits. He says he is surprised by how under-owned the stock is.
Guggenheim went further, raising its target to $124 from $116 while keeping a Buy rating. The firm cited sponsorship momentum, Las Vegas profitability, the upcoming Madrid race, and international media rights renewals as drivers.
Of 17 analysts tracked by FactSet, 15 have a Buy rating or equivalent. Consensus estimates have EPS climbing nearly 22% in 2027 to $2.25.
The stock trades at 46 times next year’s earnings. That is not cheap, but backers argue sports assets routinely trade at seven to ten times revenue. F1 also generates free cash flow and has stated it will use that to reduce its share count over time.
Risks Worth Knowing
F1’s U.S. audience, while growing, is still small compared to the NFL, NBA, or MLB. An economic slowdown could dampen race attendance. Results can be lumpy.
Revenue and OIBDA did miss estimates in the most recent quarter, which led Guggenheim to trim its 2026 OIBDA forecast, even as it raised its price target.
FWONK stock has trailed the broader market across its A, B, and C series so far this year, with a 52-week range of $80.15 to $109.36.
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