TLDR
- Burry says today’s market feels like the final months of the 1999-2000 dot-com bubble
- He warns investors are ignoring all data to focus solely on AI stocks
- Rising oil near $100, long-term Treasury yields above 5%, and AI debt spending are creating multiple pressure points
- Private equity and private credit markets could be vulnerable if borrowing costs keep rising
- Burry admits past failed crash calls but points to correct calls in 2000, 2007, and 2021
Michael Burry, the investor who predicted the 2008 housing crash, says the stock market is behaving just like it did in the final months of the dot-com bubble.
In posts on Substack and X, Burry said investors have stopped paying attention to jobs data, consumer sentiment, or global events. Instead, they are focused on one thing: artificial intelligence.
“Absolutely non-stop AI. Nobody is talking about anything else all day,” he wrote after listening to financial radio on a long drive.
He said stocks are rising not because of fundamentals, but because they have been rising. He called it a “two letter thesis that everyone thinks they understand.”
Burry also said the AI rush is causing investors to overlook solid companies with strong fundamentals. He wrote that he was “patiently acquiring” those overlooked stocks, similar to what he did after the dot-com bubble started to unwind.
Bond Yields and Oil Add to the Pressure
On July 23, Burry posted on X, pointing to a broader set of risks beyond just stock valuations.
He flagged rising long-term Treasury yields, with the 30-year yield trading above 5% for 27 days in 2026. The last comparable stretch was in 2007, before the global financial crisis.
Technology companies are borrowing heavily to build out data centers and AI infrastructure. That debt issuance is competing with high Treasury supply, pushing long-term borrowing costs higher.
Oil is also approaching $100 a barrel. That adds inflationary pressure and makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
$100 oil is back.
Brent crude oil prices are now officially trading above $100/barrel up +42% in 20 days.
Inflation expectations and interest rates are rising sharply again. pic.twitter.com/2b6UqAyF7N
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 23, 2026
Burry wrote: “Not sure how much longer PE and PC can hold their breath,” referring to private equity and private credit markets. These sectors thrived when rates were low and could face stress if yields stay elevated.
He also flagged the Treasury basis trade, a leveraged strategy that can force rapid selling if volatility spikes, making Treasury market moves worse.
Burry Has Been Wrong Before
Burry acknowledged his track record on crash calls is mixed. He compared bitcoin to the housing market in 2021. He also warned of a historic market crash that year. Neither happened.
“I am now a meme for the number of times I have called a crash,” he wrote.
Still, he points to correct calls in 2000, 2007, 2019, the 2021 meme stock crash, and the 2023 bank stock run.
He is not alone. Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC in May that today’s market feels like 1999. Jones said the rally could last another year or two, but warned of “breathtaking corrections” if valuations keep climbing.
The Buffett Indicator, which measures total stock market value against GDP, remains at historically high levels.
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