TLDR
- Stifel reiterates Buy rating on Micron (MU) with a $1,500 price target, stock currently at ~$1,015
- MU has gained 266% in 2026 and 525% over the past year
- Micron guided for ~$50B in Q4 revenue and ~$31 non-GAAP EPS; Stifel expects a beat
- HBM4 pricing per bit is expected to double, potentially boosting margins
- 29 of 30 analysts rate MU a Strong Buy, with an average price target of $1,564
Micron is heading into its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report, due after the market closes on September 30, with a lot riding on the numbers. The stock has already gained 266% in 2026 alone and trades around $1,015, up roughly 525% over the past year.
Stifel analyst Brian Chin, ranked in the top 1% of Wall Street analysts, is expecting another beat. He forecasts $50.78 billion in Q4 revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $32, both slightly ahead of Micron’s own guidance of ~$50B in revenue and ~$31 EPS.
Micron’s guided gross margin for the quarter stands near 86%. Chin sits a touch higher, projecting 87% for Q4 and 88.2% for the November quarter.
For the fiscal first quarter ending in November, Chin expects revenue to climb to $56.4 billion, an 11% sequential jump. He says the growth will be driven by pricing rather than increased shipment volume.
Supply Constraints Are the Story
The key theme going into this report is supply. Chin’s view is that the memory market’s upcycle is “under-appreciated” by the broader market, and the data backs that up.
DRAM bit shipment growth is expected to slow to 15%-20% in calendar year 2027, down from mid-to-high 20% growth in 2026. The slowdown comes from new cleanroom capacity taking time to come online and tighter equipment availability.
Chin estimates that DRAM bit supply growth would need to hit 40-50% or more in 2027 just to close the current supply gap. That kind of shortfall tends to keep pricing elevated for longer.
Some of the revenue growth is also being influenced by supply agreements with collar-based pricing, which can moderate the size of estimate beats compared to recent quarters.
HBM4 Could Add Another Boost
Beyond standard DRAM, HBM4 is a key variable. Chin expects HBM4 pricing per bit to roughly double, with negotiations for next-generation products wrapping up soon.
That could add a meaningful margin lift in Micron’s fiscal second quarter ending in February 2026.
Micron also recently announced a $10 billion investment in a new research facility in Boise, Idaho, called Micron Research Labs, to be built out over the next decade.
On the legal side, Micron lost a patent appeal against Netlist, with the court ruling against Micron’s arguments.
TD Cowen also holds a Buy rating on MU with a $1,600 price target. Citi projects a worsening memory undersupply running through 2031, driven by AI demand.
Of 30 analysts covering MU, 29 rate it a Buy. The average price target sits at $1,564, pointing to around 50% upside from current levels.
Stop guessing and start investing with confidence. KnockoutStocks gives you the AI insights, market intelligence, and stock research you need to spot opportunities, cut through the noise, and make smarter investment decisions — all in one powerful platform.
Sign up today and get 50% OFF full access to our premium stock picks.
Simply use coupon code SPECIAL50 at checkout to claim your exclusive discount.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
