TLDR
- Moderna stock rose 3.6% on Tuesday to around $145.40, with trading volume 79% below average.
- Moderna and Merck posted positive late-stage results for their personalized mRNA melanoma vaccine.
- The U.S. approved Moderna’s updated COVID-19 vaccine, adding to investor confidence.
- Wall Street consensus remains “Hold” with an average price target of $80.53, well below current trading levels.
- GSK is advancing its own mRNA flu vaccine into Phase III, posing a potential competitive threat.
Moderna stock jumped 3.6% on Tuesday, trading as high as $143.74 before closing around $145.40. Volume was unusually quiet at around 2.4 million, down 79% from the average daily volume of over 11 million.
Two pieces of news drove the move. First, Moderna and Merck reported encouraging Phase 3 results for their personalized mRNA melanoma vaccine. The data lifted hopes that Moderna’s oncology pipeline could become a meaningful revenue driver beyond COVID.
Second, U.S. regulators approved Moderna’s updated COVID-19 vaccine, giving the company a commercial product heading into the fall respiratory season.
That combination sent the stock higher and kept investor focus firmly on Moderna’s broader pipeline.
Analyst Ratings Tell a Different Story
Despite the rally, Wall Street is not fully on board. The consensus rating among analysts is “Hold,” with an average price target of $80.53, far below where the stock is currently trading.
Several major banks have recently revised their targets upward, but most remain cautious. JPMorgan lifted its target from $40 to $77, while keeping an “underweight” rating. Morgan Stanley moved its target from $39 to $89 but kept an “equal weight” call. Bank of America upgraded from “underperform” to “neutral.”
Loop Capital set a $135 price target, the closest to the current price among the named brokerages. Brookline Capital Markets kept its “Buy” rating and still sees the stock turning profitable in 2029 and 2030, though it slightly trimmed its EPS estimates for those years.
Of the 23 analysts covering the stock, seven rate it a Buy, thirteen say Hold, and three say Sell.
Competitive Pressure From GSK
One risk on the horizon is GSK. The pharma giant has moved its own mRNA-based flu vaccine into Phase III testing, entering the space shortly after Moderna received the first-ever U.S. approval for a seasonal flu mRNA vaccine.
That approval was a milestone for Moderna, but GSK’s push into the same category adds a layer of uncertainty around how much market share Moderna can hold long term.
On the financial side, Moderna’s most recent quarterly results, reported July 31, showed a loss of $1.97 per share, beating estimates of a $2.03 loss. Revenue came in at $145 million, ahead of the $102.9 million analysts expected, and up 2.1% year over year.
The company closed a $2.6 billion convertible notes deal, which strengthens its cash position as it funds ongoing clinical programs. Moderna carries a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.09 and a current ratio of 2.29, giving it financial flexibility in the near term.
Moderna has also confirmed it will present at the Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference on September 14 and the Bernstein Healthcare Forum on September 23.
Year to date, MRNA stock is up roughly 376%.
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