TLDR
- Nebius (NBIS) hit a new 52-week high of $233.73, up 157% year-to-date and 468% over the past 12 months
- Q1 2026 revenue surged 684% year-over-year to $399 million, with the core AI business up 841% YOY
- Nvidia invested $2 billion into Nebius; Meta signed a $27 billion contract with the company
- Nebius broke ground on a gigawatt-scale AI factory campus in Independence, Missouri — its first major US build
- Wall Street holds a “Moderate Buy” consensus with a high price target of $287, implying up to 34% upside
Nebius Group (NBIS) has been one of the market’s standout AI stories this year. The stock recently touched $233.73, its highest level ever, before pulling back slightly to around $214.77. It’s up 157% so far in 2025 and has gained 468% over the past 12 months.
The numbers driving that run are hard to ignore. Q1 2026 revenue came in at $399 million, up 684% year-over-year and 75% sequentially. The core AI business did even better, growing 841% YOY to $390 million — that’s 98% of total group revenue. Annualized run-rate revenue hit $1.9 billion by end of March, and management says customer demand is still outpacing available supply.
The company is not yet profitable, but adjusted EBITDA improved sharply to $130 million in Q1, compared to just $15 million the prior quarter and a loss of $54 million a year ago. Analysts expect Nebius to report a profit of $0.36 per share in fiscal 2027.
Strategic Backing From Nvidia and Meta
Two partnerships have done a lot to change how investors view Nebius. Nvidia put in $2 billion via an equity investment earlier this year, and Nebius has since achieved Exemplar Cloud status for GB300 training workloads. That’s not just a marketing label — it reflects deep technical integration with Nvidia’s hardware ecosystem.
Then there’s the Meta deal. Nebius secured a $27 billion contract with Meta Platforms, which management says could open up billions more in financing for future cloud expansion. These aren’t minor wins for a company of Nebius’ size.
On the balance sheet, Nebius ended Q1 with $9.3 billion in cash. The company is guiding for annualized run-rate revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion in 2026. Capital expenditure plans are set between $20 billion and $25 billion this year, though management was clear that this spending is backed by existing customer commitments for 2027 deployments — not speculative bets.
Boots on the Ground in Missouri
Nebius also broke ground this week on a gigawatt-scale AI factory campus in Independence, Missouri. The 400-acre site is the company’s first large-scale physical build in the US. It’s planned to support around 1,200 construction jobs and 130 permanent roles once operational.
The project includes sustainability commitments — lower water use, noise and light controls — along with education and workforce partnerships with local schools and colleges. Those community ties matter for permitting and regulatory approvals, especially as energy-heavy data centers face increasing scrutiny.
Nebius expanded its total contracted power capacity from over 2 gigawatts to more than 3.5 gigawatts during Q1 and is targeting over 4 gigawatts by end of 2026. The company also unveiled a Pennsylvania site that could eventually support 1.2 gigawatts — its second planned gigawatt-scale US facility.
Earlier this year, Nebius acquired Tavily, Eigen AI, and Clarifai as part of a push to build out a full-stack AI platform covering training, inference, and agentic AI services.
Wall Street has a “Moderate Buy” consensus on NBIS, with nine of 15 analysts rating it “Strong Buy” and six at “Hold.” The high price target sits at $287 — roughly 34% above current levels.
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