TLDR
- Bernstein maintained its “underperform” rating on NVO with a price target of 203 Danish kroner, implying 33% downside from the August 7 close of 305.10 kroner.
- The brokerage cut its 2026-2031 EPS forecasts by up to 15% below consensus, citing worsening U.S. market share losses to Eli Lilly.
- Bernstein expects Lilly’s Foundayo to take majority U.S. oral obesity share from Novo’s Wegovy pill by 2028.
- Wegovy pill sales came in at around $497 million, narrowly missing forecasts, adding to investor concern.
- Analyst consensus sits at “Hold” with an average price target of $65.81; NVO traded at $47.21 on Friday.
Novo Nordisk stock opened at $47.21 on Friday, sitting well below its one-year high of $64.16, as bearish analyst pressure continues to stack up against the Danish drugmaker.
Bernstein is the latest to put a number on the pain. The brokerage maintained its “underperform” rating and raised its price target slightly to 203 Danish kroner from 200 kroner. That still implies 33% downside from the August 7 close of 305.10 kroner.
The firm slashed its 2026 EPS estimate to 20.19 kroner, sitting 7% below consensus. Its 2031 forecast of 24.20 kroner lands 15% below what the Street expects. Bernstein said its bull/bear scenario remains “negatively skewed,” with just 4% upside against 40% downside to 2035 estimated EBIT.
The core issue is Eli Lilly. Bernstein expects Novo to lose majority U.S. oral obesity market share to Lilly’s Foundayo by 2028, putting direct pressure on Wegovy pill growth projections.
Bernstein also no longer sees Cagri-sema as an upside driver. The drug’s REDEFINE-4 trial, which read out in February 2026, failed to show non-inferiority to Lilly’s Zepbound. That removes a key pipeline catalyst the market had previously been pricing in.
Wegovy Pill Miss Adds to the Pressure
Wegovy pill sales came in at roughly $497 million in the most recent quarter, narrowly missing analyst forecasts. CEO Mike Doustdar and CFO Karina Hertmann are now openly resetting investor expectations and pointing to a more disciplined approach to growth going forward.
On a positive note, Novo did raise its full-year sales and profit outlook for the second time this year. The company reported Q2 revenue of $11.98 billion and EPS of $0.94. A Texas judge also dismissed antitrust claims alleging Novo and Lilly improperly restricted access to compounded GLP-1 drugs, removing one legal overhang.
Bernstein did nudge its price target up slightly after introducing projections for coramitug, an antibody licensed from Prothena currently in phase 3 trials for ATTR-cardiomyopathy. The firm forecast peak sales of $928 million for the drug, well below the $6.3 billion consensus estimate.
Institutional Sellers Are Moving
Teamwork Financial Advisors cut its NVO stake by 94.9% in Q2, selling 95,033 shares and retaining just 5,091 worth roughly $244,000. Other institutions made smaller moves in both directions during the same period.
Institutional investors now own 11.54% of the company. The stock carries a market cap of $210.77 billion, a PE ratio of 11.54, and a one-year low of $35.12.
Of 21 analysts tracked by MarketBeat, five rate NVO a Buy, fifteen say Hold, and one has a Sell. The consensus price target stands at $65.81.
Novo declared a dividend of $0.5786 per share, payable August 25 to investors of record on August 17.
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