TLDR
- Bernstein projects prediction market volumes to reach ~$1 trillion by 2030, up from $51 billion in 2025
- Polymarket and Kalshi have already hit $60 billion in combined volume in 2026 so far
- Sports dominates now at 62% of volume, but crypto and macro contracts are expected to take over long-term
- Industry revenue could grow from $400 million in 2025 to $10.8 billion by 2030
- Robinhood and Coinbase are named as key distribution players, with price targets of $130 and $330 respectively
Wall Street broker Bernstein has published a report projecting prediction market volumes will reach roughly $1 trillion by 2030. That would be a massive jump from the $51 billion recorded in 2025.
The firm expects volumes to hit around $240 billion in 2026 alone. That implies an 80% compound annual growth rate through the end of the decade.
Platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have already recorded a combined $60 billion in volume so far in 2026. That pace suggests the sector is well ahead of earlier forecasts.
Bernstein analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, point to two main drivers. The first is clearer regulation at the federal level. The second is blockchain infrastructure that allows global participation and fast creation of new event contracts.
The CFTC has asserted exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets. It is currently working on formal rules as the industry grows.
Sports contracts currently make up about 62% of all prediction market volume. Lower effective fees compared to traditional sportsbooks have helped drive that share.
Sports Is Just the Start
Bernstein expects sports’ share to fall to around 31% by 2030. Crypto-linked contracts, along with macro, political, and economic events, are expected to become the dominant categories.
The analysts said they expect an institutional market to develop around economics, business, and political contracts. Corporate and insurance firms may also use these markets to hedge event-specific risks.
On the revenue side, the industry brought in roughly $400 million in 2025. Bernstein projects that to rise to $2.5 billion in 2026, and then to $10.8 billion by 2030.
Polymarket recently moved away from a zero-fee model. It is now running at an annualized revenue rate of $420 million.
Robinhood and Coinbase in Focus
Robinhood has built a $350 million annualized revenue run rate from prediction markets within 12 months of launching its Kalshi-powered hub. The company is also moving toward owning its own exchange infrastructure.
Coinbase entered the space through Kalshi, giving its users access to more than 1,000 contracts nationwide.
Bernstein rates both companies as outperform. The firm has a $130 price target on Robinhood, implying around 81% upside from Monday’s close. Its $330 target on Coinbase implies roughly 89% upside.
Analysts noted that Robinhood’s stock has already dropped about 50% since late 2025. They believe a weak first quarter is already priced in, and expect trading volumes to recover in the second quarter.
The firm projects Robinhood’s prediction market revenue will grow from around $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026. It also flagged the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the U.S. and midterm elections as upcoming volume catalysts.
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