TLDR
- Robinhood missed Wall Street estimates on both EPS ($0.38 vs $0.39) and revenue ($1.07B vs $1.14B forecast)
- Crypto transaction revenue fell 47% year-over-year to $134 million; crypto trading volume dropped 48% to $24 billion
- Average revenue per user dropped to $157 from $191 the prior quarter
- 2026 operating expense guidance raised to $2.7B–$2.825B, up 18% year-over-year
- Robinhood Predictions hit a record 8.8 billion event contracts traded in Q1, up 780% from its launch quarter
Robinhood posted its Q1 2026 results on Tuesday and the market didn’t like what it saw. HOOD fell more than 9% in after-hours trading following a rare miss on both revenue and earnings.
EPS came in at $0.38, just below the $0.39 estimate. Revenue hit $1.07 billion, missing the $1.14 billion forecast by about 6%.
The company still turned a profit. Net income rose 3% year-over-year to $346 million, and user growth remained strong with a record 4.3 million Gold subscribers and $18 billion in net deposits.
BREAKING: Robinhood stock, $HOOD, falls over -7% after posting weaker than expected Q1 2026 earnings. pic.twitter.com/hHREWG9MWW
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 28, 2026
But investors were focused elsewhere.
Crypto was the headline problem. Transaction revenue from crypto fell 47% year-over-year from $252 million to $134 million. Trading volume dropped 48% to $24 billion. It was the third consecutive quarter of falling crypto transaction revenue.
CEO Vladimir Tenev pointed to market price swings as the cause, but said Robinhood is more focused on building crypto infrastructure than chasing short-term volume. “Price moves up and down, but what I can tell you is crypto as technology infrastructure is going to be big,” he said.
Not included in those crypto figures was Bitstamp, acquired in June 2025. The exchange posted $42 billion in trading volume for the quarter, down 13% from Q4 2025.
Average revenue per user also slipped, falling to $157 from $191 the prior quarter. That’s a sign that even as Robinhood adds users, it’s making less from each one.
Costs Are Climbing
Operating expenses rose 18% to $656 million, driven by higher marketing spend and investment in new products, including so-called “Trump Accounts.”
Full-year 2026 expense guidance was raised to $2.7 billion–$2.825 billion. That’s the number investors are watching closely, as it points to a near-term squeeze on margins.
The spending increase reflects Robinhood’s push into new business lines, but markets are skeptical about the timing and return on those investments.
Predictions Platform Picks Up Slack
One bright spot: Robinhood Predictions, its event-contracts platform built through Kalshi, had a breakout quarter.
A record 8.8 billion event contracts were traded on the platform in Q1 — a 780% jump from Q2 2025, its first full quarter of operation. Tenev said April is on track to hit around $3 billion in trading volume, which would be the platform’s second-highest month.
That helped push the “other” revenue category up 320% year-over-year to $147 million, partially offsetting the crypto drag.
Wall Street still likes the stock overall. HOOD carries a Strong Buy consensus based on 14 Buy ratings, 3 Holds, and zero Sells over the past three months. The average price target sits at $106, implying roughly 29% upside from current levels.
Robinhood Predictions is set to report April trading volumes in the coming weeks.
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