TLDR
- Sandisk stock is up ~6% Tuesday after crashing 13% Monday in a broader chip selloff
- KeyBanc published a bullish note on rival Micron, citing strong AI data center demand in Asia
- NAND and DRAM supply shortages continue to push memory prices higher
- Sandisk’s first high-bandwidth flash (HBF) memory samples are expected later this year, with a full product launch in 2027
- Analysts are split — Wall Street average is Buy, but SA analysts average Hold, flagging valuation risk at ~57x trailing earnings
Sandisk has had a rough couple of weeks. The stock dropped 20% over two weeks, including a near-13% plunge on Monday during a broader chip selloff. But Tuesday brought some relief — SNDK is trading up around 6% as of mid-morning.
The catalyst? A note from KeyBanc on Micron.
KeyBanc visited AI data center sites across Asia and came back with a clear message: demand for AI chips and high-bandwidth memory remains strong. Supply shortages in both DRAM and NAND are still pushing prices up, and KeyBanc raised its price target on Micron as a result.
Sandisk didn’t get a price target bump from KeyBanc. Micron makes both DRAM and NAND, while Sandisk is NAND-only. Still, the bank specifically flagged deficits in both memory types — and that’s enough to lift Sandisk alongside its rival.
The memory market is expected to stay tight for another two to three years, according to SA analyst Hunting Alphas, who called memory capacity “the key bottleneck in scaling AI inferencing workloads.”
Sandisk is working on a potential answer to that bottleneck. The company is developing high-bandwidth flash (HBF) memory, with first samples expected later this year and a full commercial launch targeted for 2027. Hunting Alphas projected this could drive “massive revenue growth” over the next two financial years.
Analyst Opinions Split
Not everyone is on board. SA analyst David Desjardins flagged that Sandisk has signed only five supply agreements so far — representing roughly one-third of its expected bit production in fiscal 2027. He also warned that the cyclical nature of the NAND business could turn ugly when a new wave of supply hits the market early next year.
“Paying ~7.5x peak earnings is actually expensive,” Desjardins said.
Wall Street analysts on average still carry a Buy rating. Citi reiterated a $2,500 price target, and Evercore ISI made a bold upgrade — raising its target to $3,100 from $1,400.
Valuation Is the Real Question
Sandisk is trading at over 57x trailing earnings. That’s a lot to pay, even for a stock that’s up 605% year-to-date and 3,840% over the past year.
The bull case is straightforward: if NAND prices keep climbing and profits follow, that P/E compresses fast. The bear case is equally simple: any sign that supply is catching up or that customers start stretching their memory usage could send the stock back down hard.
SA Quant rates SNDK a Strong Buy. SA analysts on average say Hold. Wall Street leans Buy.
Evercore ISI’s $3,100 target is the most aggressive call on the Street right now.
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