TLDR
- Wall Street has raised SpaceX’s 2027 revenue forecast to $100 billion, up from $70 billion, driven by faster-than-expected AI growth.
- SpaceX’s AI unit is now projected to generate $60 billion in 2027 revenue, up from an earlier estimate of $38 billion.
- Updated valuation models place SPCX stock between $140 and $200 per share, well above the original $90 post-merger target.
- By 2031, Wall Street projects $530 billion in AI-related revenue for SpaceX, versus early estimates closer to $150 billion.
- NYU professor Aswath Damodaran warns that renting computing capacity to others like Google and Anthropic limits long-term value.
SpaceX stock (SPCX) was trading down 2.2% in premarket Monday at $147.90, even as analysts sharply raised their price targets for the company.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Wall Street has lifted its 2027 revenue forecast for SpaceX to $100 billion, up from $70 billion just months ago. Projected 2027 core earnings jumped from $28 billion to $59 billion over the same period.
The driving force behind those upgrades is the AI business. SpaceX’s AI unit is now expected to pull in $60 billion in 2027 revenue, compared to a July estimate of $38 billion.
That acceleration has also changed the long-term cash flow picture. Earlier this year, Wall Street expected SpaceX to burn through $24 billion in cash by 2030. Now, analysts expect positive free cash flow.
Looking further out, Wall Street projects $530 billion in AI-related revenue by 2031. Early estimates for that same year were around $150 billion.
Valuation Models Get a Rethink
NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran had SpaceX valued at around $100 per share in June, using 2036 AI revenue of $160 billion in his model. That number now looks too conservative.
Using updated AI revenue assumptions of $500 billion by 2036, the stock could be worth closer to $140. If 2036 AI sales reach $1 trillion, the price target rises toward $200.
Those figures imply that every $100 billion in annual AI revenue by 2036 is worth roughly $10 per share today.
At current prices, SPCX trades at around 34 times estimated 2027 Ebitda. That compares to GE Aerospace and GE Vernova, which trade closer to 25 times.
On TipRanks, SPCX carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating, based on 26 Buys, six Holds, and two Sells. The average price target sits at $231.68, implying more than 53% upside from current levels.
A Caution Flag From Damodaran
Despite the improved numbers, Damodaran isn’t ready to revise his model just yet. His concern is where the AI revenue is coming from.
Most of SpaceX’s current AI growth comes from renting computing capacity to outside clients, including Google and Anthropic. Damodaran warns that this model has limits.
“That actually takes away from their AI story, since to win in that story, you have to be generating revenues from creating AI agents and collecting subscription or usage revenues,” he told Barron’s.
He compared it to a manufacturer building a large factory for a high-growth product, then leasing most of it out to competitors.
Starlink subscriber counts have doubled from under 6 million in June 2025 to over 12 million by June 2026. Falcon family launches grew from under 50 in 2021 to over 150 in 2025.
SpaceX also controls 80% of global mass launched to orbit, up from 45% in January 2021.
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