TLDR
- Strategy will report Q1 earnings on May 1 after market close, expected to show $116.6M revenue
- The company now holds 471,000+ Bitcoins worth about $46B, growing at 59% CAGR since 2020
- 12 out of 13 analysts rate MSTR a Buy, with average price target around $509 (35% upside)
- Strategy’s cloud subscription revenue grew 48% year-over-year per last report
- Recent Bitcoin price drop of 12% in April has created paper losses but hasn’t dampened analyst enthusiasm
Strategy is set to release its first-quarter 2025 financial results this Thursday after trading hours. The company has transformed from a standard enterprise software firm into the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder.
Wall Street expects Strategy to report revenue of $116.6 million for Q1. This represents a slight 1.2% increase compared to the same period last year.
Analysts are forecasting a loss of $0.11 per share. This shows improvement from the $0.31 per share loss posted in Q1 2024.
The company’s stock has performed well in 2025 despite recent cryptocurrency market turbulence. MSTR shares have climbed 32% year-to-date.
Strategy now carries over 471,000 Bitcoins on its balance sheet. This massive holding is valued at approximately $46 billion at current prices.
Balancing Act: Software and Crypto
While Bitcoin dominates Strategy’s financial story, the company continues to develop its original business. Its cloud analytics platform remains an active part of operations.
The software segment showed promising growth in previous reports. Subscription revenue increased 48% year-over-year according to the most recent data.
Even more impressive was the 57% jump in subscription billings. These figures suggest the core business maintains healthy momentum.
This two-pronged approach gives investors exposure to both enterprise software and cryptocurrency. Some analysts view this as a unique advantage in today’s market.
The management team likely aims to highlight both aspects during the upcoming earnings call. Investors will watch closely for comments on future Bitcoin acquisition plans and software development strategies.
Bitcoin’s Wild Ride Affects Results
Strategy’s financial statements have become increasingly tied to Bitcoin’s price movements. The cryptocurrency dropped more than 12% in April alone.
This decline has erased billions in paper value from Strategy’s holdings. However, most analysts remain focused on the long-term potential rather than short-term fluctuations.
The company recently adopted new accounting standards for its Bitcoin holdings. The Financial Accounting Standards Board’s fair-value rules now require Strategy to report market value changes on its income statement.
In an early release of partial Q1 results, Strategy disclosed a $5.91 billion unrealized loss on its Bitcoin portfolio. This was partially offset by a $1.69 billion tax benefit.
Despite these paper losses, the company has consistently increased its Bitcoin holdings per share over time. This metric, called “BTC Yield” by some analysts, has grown through strategic capital raises.
Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings have expanded at a compound annual growth rate of 59% between 2020 and 2024. This aggressive accumulation strategy has made it a favorite among investors seeking cryptocurrency exposure through traditional markets.
Analyst Outlook Remains Positive
Wall Street’s view on Strategy stock is overwhelmingly positive ahead of earnings. Of 13 analysts following the company, 12 rate it a Buy.
Only one analyst recommends Sell, giving MSTR a Strong Buy consensus rating. This level of agreement is unusual for a company with such high exposure to volatile cryptocurrency markets.
The average price target stands around $509, suggesting upside potential of approximately 35% from current levels. The range of targets is wide, spanning from $175 to $650.
Several high-profile analysts have recently expressed confidence in Strategy’s approach. TD Cowen’s Lance Vitanza, a five-star analyst, maintained his Buy rating with a $550 price target on April 28.
Mike Colonnese of H.C. Wainwright initiated coverage with a Buy rating and $480 target. He described Strategy as “one of the most compelling equity investment vehicles” for Bitcoin exposure.
Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer holds the most optimistic view with a $650 price target. Palmer notes that Strategy’s adoption of new accounting rules creates more transparency around Bitcoin holdings.
Options market data suggests traders are preparing for a potential 5% move in either direction following the earnings announcement. This indicates relatively moderate expectations for volatility compared to previous quarters.
Strategy’s earnings will arrive during an interesting period for both technology stocks and cryptocurrency markets. The results may provide insights into how institutional Bitcoin strategies are evolving in 2025.
