TLDR
- SMCI rose 3.1% to $27.92 on Monday ahead of Q3 FY26 earnings due after today’s close
- Wall Street expects EPS of $0.62 and revenue of ~$12.39 billion, up roughly 170% year-over-year
- Options traders are pricing in a 13.54% move in either direction post-earnings
- Governance concerns persist, including employee indictments, shareholder lawsuits, and a reported contract loss with Oracle
- Analyst consensus is Hold, with an average price target of $30.53
SMCI climbed 3.1% to $27.92 on Monday, touching an intraday high of $28.50, as investors positioned ahead of the company’s fiscal Q3 2026 results due after today’s market close.
Super Micro Computer, Inc., SMCI
The stock has had a rough six months, dropping over 42% following U.S. charges tied to diverted Nvidia chips to China. But it has bounced more than 20% over the past month heading into today’s print.
Wall Street is looking for EPS of $0.62, up from $0.31 a year ago. Revenue is forecast to come in around $12.39 billion — a roughly 170% jump year-over-year.
Last quarter, SMCI posted revenue growth of 123% year-over-year. That beat expectations handily, but gross margin slipped to 6.4% due to higher costs and product mix shifts. Margin stabilization will be a key thing to watch tonight.
Also on the radar: the rollout of Nvidia’s Blackwell systems. Investors want to know how fast deployment is moving and what contribution it’s making to revenue.
What Options Traders Are Expecting
Options markets are pricing in a 13.54% swing in either direction following the report. That’s above SMCI’s own average post-earnings move of 11.2% over the past four quarters — a sign the market sees this as a high-stakes print.
Volume on Monday came in at roughly 29 million, about 18% below the average session, suggesting traders were largely holding their positions ahead of the number.
Legal and Governance Risks Still Hanging Over the Stock
The earnings report doesn’t exist in a vacuum. SMCI is dealing with a growing pile of legal headaches.
Multiple law firms — including Faruqi, Glancy, and Rosen — are actively soliciting investors ahead of a May 26, 2026 securities class action deadline. That’s not a small footnote.
Wedbush has flagged fresh uncertainty around corporate governance, and reports have circulated about the loss of a material contract with Oracle. Both are potential drags on sentiment if management commentary tonight is anything less than reassuring.
Analyst sentiment heading in is cautious. Citigroup’s Asiya Merchant raised her price target to $28.81 from $25 but kept a Hold rating. JPMorgan’s Samik Chatterjee cut his target to $28 from $40, also maintaining Hold.
The broader consensus from TipRanks sits at Hold — three Buys, eight Holds, two Sells — with an average price target of $30.53, implying about 9.4% upside from current levels.
On the institutional side, 84% of SMCI stock is held by hedge funds and institutional investors, several of which added modestly to positions last quarter.
The company carries a P/E of 20.84, a PEG ratio of 0.51, and a market cap of $16.72 billion. Its 50-day moving average sits at $27.67, essentially where the stock is trading right now.
Q3 FY26 guidance from management had pointed to EPS of $0.60, just below the street’s $0.62 estimate.
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