TLDR
- Tesla stock fell ~1% in premarket trading to $403.56 on Monday
- Tesla decommissioned Model S and Model X production lines in Fremont to make way for Optimus robot manufacturing
- Q2 deliveries hit 480,100 units, beating consensus estimates of 406,000 units
- Jefferies raised its price target to $400 from $375, maintaining a Hold rating
- Investors are watching the July 22 earnings call for updates on Optimus production
Tesla stock slipped roughly 1% to $403.56 in premarket trading Monday, continuing a rough year that has seen the stock fall about 9% in 2026, even as it sits roughly 30% higher over the past 12 months.
The dip comes as investors wait for more concrete progress on Tesla’s AI ambitions, including its humanoid robot Optimus and its robo-taxi rollout.
On Friday, Tesla dropped a video showing the full decommissioning of its Model S and Model X production lines at its Fremont, California factory. The teardown was completed in under seven weeks. The cleared floor space will now be used to produce Optimus robots.
Optimus V3’s hand is getting scary good.
Hands are one of robotics’ nastiest little problems. Gripping is easy.
Knowing how hard to squeeze an egg, turn a tiny screw, fold fabric, or pick up something fragile without launching it across the room?
Different game.
Tesla… https://t.co/uKe3ptfBXL pic.twitter.com/1QlZT4Cw1G
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) July 10, 2026
Tesla first announced plans to halt Model S and X production in January, with CEO Elon Musk framing the robot business as a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity. The move signals how seriously the company is betting on Optimus as its next major revenue driver.
Despite the aggressive preparation, Tesla has not yet started selling Optimus commercially. Rival humanoid robot makers, including China’s Unitree, are posting regular updates, adding pressure on Tesla to show progress.
Q2 Deliveries Beat Expectations
Tesla delivered 480,100 vehicles in Q2 2026, well above the Bloomberg consensus of around 380,700 units and JPMorgan’s estimate of 420,000. That represents 25% year-over-year growth.
Model 3 and Model Y accounted for 467,800 of those deliveries. The “Others” category — which includes Cybertruck and other vehicles — saw 12,364 deliveries.
In response to the delivery beat, Jefferies raised its price target on TSLA to $400 from $375, while holding its rating at Hold. The firm bumped its Q2 EBIT estimate to $1.45 billion, a 5.1% margin, and lifted outer-year EBIT by roughly 6%.
Jefferies also raised its automotive revenue estimate for the quarter to $21 billion, which includes $250 million in zero-emission vehicle credits and $500 million from leasing. Group revenue is expected to come in at $28.7 billion.
For the full year 2026, Jefferies raised its EBIT estimate by 4% to $6.2 billion. The firm kept its free cash flow outflow estimate at approximately $7.5 billion, factoring in capital expenditures of around $23 billion.
What to Watch: July 22 Earnings
JPMorgan maintained a Neutral rating with a $475 price target following the delivery numbers. RBC Capital went further, lifting its target to $500, factoring in a potential SpaceX acquisition scenario.
Morgan Stanley held its Equalweight rating with a $415 target, pointing to Tesla’s recent robotaxi launch in Miami as a data point worth watching.
Tesla’s robo-taxi service, first launched in Austin in June 2025, is still operating in a limited number of cities and remains well behind Alphabet’s Waymo in scale.
All eyes now turn to Tesla’s Q2 earnings report on July 22, where investors expect updates on Optimus production timelines and the latest iteration of the robot.
Seven analysts have already revised earnings estimates upward ahead of the report, according to InvestingPro.
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