TLDR
- Uber President Andrew Macdonald predicts most people will not need a car or driver’s license within 15 to 20 years
- He called the privately owned car “the most inefficient asset” anyone owns, sitting idle 98% of the day
- New car prices have risen 30% over the past six years, making ownership less appealing
- Uber has dropped plans for its own self-driving fleet and is partnering with Waymo and Waabi instead
- Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi echoed the prediction, saying most trips could eventually be handled by robots
Uber’s top executive says the era of car ownership and driver’s licenses may be coming to an end, as autonomous vehicles and shared transport reshape how people get around.
Macdonald’s Vision for the Future
Andrew Macdonald, Uber’s President and Chief Operating Officer, made the comments on the 20VC podcast hosted by entrepreneur Harry Stebbings.
He said that within 15 to 20 years, most people will rely on bikes, scooters, public transit, and autonomous vehicles rather than owning a car.
“Nobody’s going to have their driver’s license because you’ll be able to get around,” Macdonald said.
For generations of Americans, getting a driver’s license at 16 has been a rite of passage. Macdonald’s comments suggest that tradition could fade as transport options expand.
He argued that private car ownership makes little financial sense. New vehicle prices have climbed 30% over the past six years, yet cars spend most of their time parked.
“The individually owned car is the most inefficient asset that anyone owns,” Macdonald said. “It sits idle 98% of the day. It’s depreciating. The ongoing operating costs are actually high.”
Even when not in use, owners still pay for insurance and other costs, he added.
Uber’s Autonomous Vehicle Strategy
Uber has stepped back from building its own self-driving cars. Instead, the company is positioning itself as a platform for autonomous vehicle operators.
Uber is currently partnering with Waymo and Waabi to bring their vehicles onto its network. This approach lets Uber benefit from the shift to self-driving without taking on the cost of developing the technology itself.
Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi made a similar prediction earlier this year on The Diary of a CEO podcast.
“You can imagine the majority of our trips being fulfilled by robots of some kind,” Khosrowshahi said. “Probably not 10 years from now, but you go 15 to 20 years from now, you’re going to start getting there.”
Autonomous vehicles are already operating in several major cities. Uber is currently paying drivers to help train AI models for self-driving systems.
Rival Lyft is paying former drivers to clean autonomous vehicles that have started replacing some ride-hailing jobs.
Macdonald, who joined Uber in 2012, is the company’s longest-serving active employee. Uber CEO Khosrowshahi has described him as “an execution machine.”
Macdonald’s forecast reflects a broader shift already underway, as ride-hailing companies move toward a future with fewer human drivers behind the wheel.
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