TLDR
- Morgan Stanley analyst Erin Wright reiterated a Buy rating on UNH with a $375 price target
- Wright named UNH her Top Pick, citing improving sentiment in managed care
- The final Medicare Advantage rate notice gave clearer visibility into 2026 reimbursements
- UNH reports Q1 earnings on April 21; EPS expected at $6.60 vs $7.20 a year ago
- Bernstein SocGen holds an Outperform rating with a $411 price target on UNH
Morgan Stanley is going into UNH’s Q1 earnings with conviction. Analyst Erin Wright reiterated her Buy rating and $375 price target, naming UnitedHealth her Top Pick in the managed care space.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, UNH
The call comes after a rough stretch for the stock. Investor fatigue around Medicare Advantage and uncertainty over medical costs have weighed on UNH. Wright believes those headwinds are starting to ease.
A key reason for her renewed confidence is the final Medicare Advantage rate notice. It gave clearer visibility into 2026 reimbursement levels and reinforced expectations that UNH can keep improving MA margins.
Wright is also watching the Optum Health turnaround closely. After a difficult period for that segment, she sees growing conviction that the business is heading in the right direction.
She also flagged AI-driven efficiencies as an emerging tailwind. It’s early days, but Wright thinks UnitedHealth’s tech investments could improve operations in a meaningful way over time.
Q1 Earnings on April 21
UNH reports first-quarter results on Tuesday, April 21. Wright expects a relatively in-line quarter, with no major surprises in either direction.
Wall Street consensus has Q1 revenue at $109.52 billion, down slightly from $109.58 billion in the same period last year. EPS is expected at $6.60, compared to $7.20 a year ago.
Investors will be watching Medicare Advantage margin trends, medical cost updates, and any commentary on Optum Health’s recovery. AI efficiency progress and the full-year outlook will also be in focus.
UNH currently trades at $316.40. At that price, Morgan Stanley’s $375 target implies roughly 18.5% upside.
Bernstein Adds Its Voice
Bernstein SocGen is even more bullish. Analyst Lance Wilkes reiterated an Outperform rating and a $411 price target, calling UNH’s valuation attractive.
The firm expects a broader sector recovery as Medicare Advantage margins climb back from their trough following the MA rate shock and the withdrawal of some competition.
Bernstein also sees a company-specific margin recovery as UNH exits unprofitable MA and Optum Health products. The firm projects strong EPS growth over the next four years.
The stock trades at a P/E of 24. For context, the average Wall Street price target across 18 Buys and 5 Holds sits at $366.24 — implying about 15.75% upside from current levels.
One risk worth noting: Leerink flagged that UNH faces exposure to expanded RADV audits by CMS. Sixty contracts covering 92% of its Medicare Advantage membership are under review — up sharply from zero in 2018. Those audits began processing in April 2025.
UBS also recently added UNH to its Global High-Quality Dividend Stock List, citing it as a reliable dividend payer.
🚨 Our April Stock Picks Are Live!
A new month means new opportunities. Our analysts have just released their top stock picks for April, highlighting companies with strong momentum that rank highly on our KO Score algorithm. We’re also now sharing trade ideas for both long-term and short-term investors, giving you more ways to spot potential opportunities in the market.
Sign up to Knockout Stocks today and get 50% off to unlock the full list and see which stocks made the cut.
Use coupon code Special50 for your exclusive discount!
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
