TLDR
- X-Energy stock is trading around $25.60, down from its IPO surge of 56% in the first two days of trading after pricing at $23 in late April.
- Guggenheim initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $57 price target, the highest on Wall Street so far.
- Morgan Stanley gave an Overweight rating with a $41 target, calling X-Energy a “first mover in next-generation nuclear technology.”
- Jefferies issued a Hold rating with a $28 target, flagging risks around fuel availability and cheaper energy alternatives.
- The company has an 11.5 gigawatt contracted backlog worth over $150 billion in potential revenue, with customers including Dow, Amazon, and Centrica.
X-Energy ($XE) priced its IPO at $23 in late April, well above its $16–$19 target range, and raised more than $1 billion. The stock surged 56% over its first two days of trading but has since pulled back to around $25.60.
X-Energy, Inc. Class A Common Stock, XE
The quiet period for IPO underwriters lifted Tuesday, triggering a wave of analyst initiations. Most came in positive.
X-Energy posted revenue of $94 million last year with a net loss of $390 million and a negative gross profit margin of 71%. It is effectively a pre-revenue business at this stage.
Despite that, Guggenheim analyst Joseph Osha assigned the stock a Buy rating and a $57 price target — the highest on the Street. Osha pointed to three tailwinds: industrial decarbonization, bipartisan support for nuclear energy, and rising electricity demand from AI data centers.
The company’s contracted backlog sits at roughly 11.5 gigawatts across 144 reactors, representing over $150 billion in potential revenue. Customers include Dow, Amazon, and Centrica.
Morgan Stanley initiated with an Overweight rating and a $41 target. Analyst David Arcaro described X-Energy as a “first mover in next-generation nuclear technology.” He highlighted the company’s capital-light model, which is built around recurring fuel and service contracts rather than direct reactor ownership.
Morgan Stanley sees X-Energy reaching breakeven on an EBITDA basis in 2030, bringing its first project online in 2033, and scaling to 20 gigawatts by 2040.
What the Bears Are Saying
Not everyone is sold. Jefferies took a more cautious stance, initiating with a Hold rating and a $28 price target — just 9% above current levels.
The firm flagged a lack of available fuel as a risk, along with the rise of cheaper, faster alternatives like solar, gas, and geothermal energy.
Jefferies analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith wrote that “further upside from here will require progress on additional Amazon/Centrica customer progress, commercialization success, and supply chain visibility.”
The firm also noted that first operations are more than five years away, which adds uncertainty to any valuation model.
According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears overvalued at current levels. The stock has fallen 19% over the past week and is trading near its 52-week low of $25.06.
A Long Road Ahead
UBS and JPMorgan also initiated coverage, with UBS citing the company’s integrated reactor, fuel, and services model as a key differentiator. JPMorgan assigned an Overweight rating, highlighting the 11.5 gigawatt backlog.
X-Energy’s IPO was oversubscribed by more than 15 times the available shares, drawing interest from long-only, sector-dedicated, and existing investors.
The company was up 3% in early trading on Tuesday following the analyst initiations.
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