TLDR
- The XRP price could reach $10 if the SEC approves a spot ETF tomorrow.
- A spot XRP ETF may drive strong capital inflows similar to Bitcoin’s ETF surge.
- Ripple’s recent 5x rally and bullish chart pattern support a potential breakout.
- Market cap projections suggest XRP could surpass Ethereum if it hits $10.
- Technical indicators like RSI show growing bullish momentum for XRP price.
The XRP price may surge rapidly if the SEC approves a spot XRP ETF tomorrow, pushing the token closer to $10. Market behavior suggests that a confirmed ETF approval would trigger significant demand and strong bullish momentum for Ripple. This development could position XRP as a serious competitor to Ethereum in terms of market capitalization.
ETF Approval Could Propel XRP Price to Double Digits
A spot XRP ETF approval could mark a pivotal moment, mirroring Bitcoin’s ETF-led growth earlier this year. Spot Bitcoin ETFs gained $6.4 billion in inflows within two months, boosting BTC by 55%. If XRP follows a similar path, its price could rise from $2.51 to $3.90 in weeks.
Ripple’s recent 5x rally between October 2024 and January 2025 supports the case for an incoming breakout. The XRP price formed a bull flag pattern, which often signals the continuation of an uptrend. If the breakout mirrors the previous rally, XRP could reach levels as high as $17.
A breakout requires strong momentum, and XRP currently shows signs of building that strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 57, signaling bullish momentum in the current trend. However, the downward slope in the ADX suggests the trend remains weak, which may slow the pace of gains.
Capital Inflows and Market Cap Projections Favor a $10 Target
JPMorgan previously estimated $8 billion in potential inflows into XRP ETFs, which could drive significant price movement. Analysts use the market cap multiplier theory to estimate that these inflows could push the XRP price above $15. Reaching $10 would place XRP’s market capitalization at approximately $589 billion.
Such a valuation would make Ripple the largest altcoin by market cap, overtaking Ethereum. Historical inflow patterns and strong retail participation further strengthen the case for a $10 target. A first-mover advantage on Wall Street could accelerate this outcome if XRP becomes the first US-based altcoin ETF.
Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg analyst, estimate an 85% likelihood of SEC approval for an XRP ETF, while Polymarket odds sit at 80%. These estimates show strong confidence in upcoming regulatory decisions favoring Ripple. The end of the SEC lawsuit against Ripple has also cleared a key obstacle.
Would love to hear directly from Atkins, but all good chance of happening. Here’s our latest odds of approval for all the dif spot ETFs via @JSeyff https://t.co/nLhYJJmO9U pic.twitter.com/4AcJVwhics
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) April 30, 2025
Technical Indicators Suggest XRP Price is Set for Breakout
Technical charts support a bullish setup as XRP consolidates just below major resistance. The height of the previous rally between Q4 2024 and January 2025 provides a reference for another potential 5x gain. If repeated, the XRP price could touch $17.
Traders continue to monitor the formation for a confirmed breakout, which remains a key short-term indicator. A successful move above resistance would confirm renewed buying pressure. Therefore, if the SEC approves a spot XRP ETF tomorrow, the XRP price could reach or exceed $10.
