TLDR
- Polymarket odds for Sam Bankman-Fried receiving a presidential pardon doubled from 5.6% to 17% within 12 hours after Changpeng Zhao’s pardon
- Over $6.5 million in bets placed on Trump’s 2025 pardons market, with $302,090 specifically on SBF
- CZ served four months for Anti-Money Laundering violations while SBF faces 25 years for fraud and misappropriating billions in customer funds
- Crypto lawyer Jake Chervinsky says he would be “truly shocked” if Trump pardoned SBF due to his Democratic mega-donor status
- SBF has been conducting media appearances and his parents are quietly seeking allies in Trump’s circle for potential clemency
Prediction market odds for a Sam Bankman-Fried pardon increased sharply after President Donald Trump pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao this week. The former FTX CEO’s chances on Polymarket jumped from 5.6% to 17% in just 12 hours.
Over $6.5 million has been wagered on Trump’s potential 2025 pardons. The specific market for SBF received $302,090 in bets. A separate market asking if SBF will be released from custody in 2025 climbed from 4.3% to 19.1% before settling at 15.5%.
SBF is currently serving a 25-year prison sentence for fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering. He was convicted of misappropriating several billion dollars worth of customer funds from FTX. His legal team has filed an appeal to reduce the sentence.
Do not pardon SBF
— RYAN SĪAN ADAMS – rsa.eth š¦ (@RyanSAdams) October 23, 2025
CZ received a four-month sentence for violating US Anti-Money Laundering laws. His company Binance allowed illicit funds to pass through its exchange. Trump stated he was told what CZ did was “not even a crime” and that CZ was “persecuted by the Biden administration.”
Crime Severity Comparison
Crypto industry lawyers point out major differences between the two cases. Sasha Hodder from Hodder Law explained that CZ wasn’t accused of stealing user funds or defrauding customers. Binance operated as a functioning exchange where withdrawals always worked.
Jake Chervinsky, a crypto lawyer, said he would be shocked if Trump pardoned SBF. He noted that SBF was a Democratic mega-donor before FTX collapsed in November 2022. Chervinsky added that SBF’s name is viewed negatively in Washington DC.
Media Campaign and Pardon Efforts
SBF appeared on Tucker Carlson’s podcast earlier this year as part of a media campaign. He has been working to reshape his public image. His parents are quietly reaching out to allies in Trump’s circle seeking clemency.
The former FTX CEO has focused on conservative media outlets. He claims he was punished for backing Republicans. These efforts appear aimed at building support for a potential pardon.
CZ maintains connections to Trump’s family through World Liberty Financial. He is a key backer of the Trump family’s crypto platform. This relationship may have played a role in his pardon.
Polymarket traders were caught off guard by CZ’s pardon. For most of the contract’s existence, odds hovered between 20% and 40%. The outcome suggests prediction markets can underprice certain events.
Kalshi saw an even larger jump in SBF pardon odds. The platform’s contract rose 9 percentage points to 16%. Both platforms show increased betting activity following CZ’s clemency.
A pardon represents SBF’s most realistic path to release before January. His appeal is unlikely to produce results before year’s end. Trump’s decision on CZ has sparked renewed speculation about other potential pardons in the crypto sector.
