TLDR
- Bitcoin held near $63,900 after US PPI data came in cooler than expected in July
- PPI rose 4.7% year-on-year, below the forecast of 4.9%, easing rate hike fears
- Markets now price a 65.6% chance the Fed holds rates steady at the September meeting
- Onchain analyst Rafael Schultze-Kraft flagged $61,000 as a key long liquidation level
- Bitcoin has struggled to break above the $64,000–$65,000 resistance range
Bitcoin held near $63,900 on Thursday after US inflation data came in softer than expected, giving crypto markets a mild boost but failing to push prices higher.
The US Producer Price Index for July came in unchanged month-on-month, missing forecasts for a 0.2% rise. On an annual basis, PPI slowed to 4.7%, below the expected 4.9%. Falling gasoline and energy prices were the main drivers of the softer reading.
🇺🇸 July Inflation & Jobs Data
Core PPI MoM: 0.2% vs 0.3% est ✅
PPI MoM: 0% vs 0.2% est ✅
Initial Jobless Claims: 209k vs 202k est ❌— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) August 13, 2026
US stocks edged higher on the news. The S&P 500 rose 0.87% and the Nasdaq gained 0.94% at the open. Bitcoin followed with a modest 0.5% gain on the day.
The July CPI report, released Wednesday, also matched expectations with consumer prices up 3.4% year-on-year and core CPI at 2.5%. Together, the two reports pushed markets to price in over a 65% chance the Fed holds rates at 3.50–3.75% in September, according to CME FedWatch data.
Fed Officials Stay Cautious
Despite the cooler data, Fed officials were not ready to declare victory on inflation. Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack, speaking at an event in Ohio, questioned whether the current trend was enough to reach the Fed’s 2% target.
“Maybe we’d get there, but if it takes another three to four years to get there, is that OK?” she said. Hammack was one of three officials who voted for a 0.25% rate hike in July.
Market attention is also turning to the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium later this month, where policymakers may give more detail on the longer-term rate path.
$61,000 in Focus for Bitcoin Traders
Barchart posted on X that Bitcoin’s Bollinger Band width had reached its narrowest level since October 2023, noting that BTC went on to rise more than 330% from October 2023 to October 2025 after a similar setup.
Bitcoin is getting ready for an explosive move 🚨 Bollinger Band width is at its narrowest level since October 2023 ✅ $BTC went on to soar more than 330% from Oct 2023 – Oct 2025 pic.twitter.com/rYwctiAqfL
— Barchart (@Barchart) August 12, 2026
Onchain analytics cofounder Rafael Schultze-Kraft warned that $61,000 is a level to watch. “Long liquidation risk has built up around $61K in the past weeks. If we get there, I’d expect forced selling to add momentum to the downside,” he wrote on X.
Bitcoin remained within its recent $63,000–$65,000 trading range. Geopolitical risks, including stalled US-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, added to the cautious tone.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen renewed inflows recently, though flows have remained uneven.
